Labour is enjoying a hairline lead of just 0.4% over the Nationalist party despite the government’s budget being judged as generous by 63% of respondents in a MaltaToday survey.

The PN’s failure to build a lead on the MLP after a positive budget has probably influenced the Prime Minister’s decision not to go for an election this year. Nonetheless the PN has come a long way from its poor showing in polls taken earlier in the year by MaltaToday.

Lawrence Gonzi has had to assess whether the PN has more to gain by waiting another few months until the people start feeling the budget’s benefits directly in their pockets, or to call an election early in 2008 knowing that things can only get worse with soaring oil and cereal prices, and teething problems after the introduction of the euro.

In his campaign, Lawrence Gonzi will bank on convincing undecided voters that he is a ‘safer pair of hands’ than Opposition leader Alfred Sant.

But Gonzi could also rely on a February election after a feel-good Christmas season fuelled by a boom in retail sales as people spend their undeclared cash on consumer goods before Malta joins the Euro on 1 January.

Despite Gonzi’s budget bonanza, in the past month Labour managed to recoup 4.5 points to return to the same level of support it enjoyed before Alfred Sant’s “Gooonzi” blunder at an Independence Day rally.

It’s an indication that Sant has managed to recover his standing among Labour-inclined voters after rising up to the occasion in his parliamentary reply to the Prime Minister’s budget in parliament.

Labour’s support fell from 31.3% to 25.6% between July and end-September, only to rise again to 30.5% in the latest survey, clearly indicating its “too late too little” campaign has neutralised any losses to the PN.

On the other hand, the PN also managed to gain 4.5% after the budget to reach its best ever result in the past two years of MaltaToday surveys.

The PN has seen its support rise by an astounding 12.1% since July, when it was at its lowest ebb amid bribery allegations hitting various ministers. The PN’s gains correspond to a sharp drop of 7.4% of respondents saying they would not vote in a forthcoming election.

As the political temperature started rising during the past month, the number of respondents who are undecided, not voting or not disclosing their voting intentions dropped from 46% to 36%.

This is an indication that the budget helped the PN recover disgruntled Nationalist voters who were intent on not voting in the coming election.

But still these gains were not enough to surpass Labour. In the past year, the PN took the lead twice but only due to a drop in MLP support following blunders committed by the party leadership.

A clear indication that the positive assessment of the budget does not necessarily translate in to support for the PN is that 35.4% of Labour voters acknowledge the budget will have a positive impact on their lives. It means 11% of voters would still vote Labour, fully knowing the budget was positive for them.

But it is also clear the PN’s failure to take the lead after its most popular budget in five years could be a reflection of the widespread perception that government’s generosity is only due to an impending election. While most respondents judge the budget positively, the vast majority say it is an ‘electoral’ one.

With 63% saying the budget will affect them positively, and 60% that it will have a positive impact on the country, 70% of respondents think the government was generous only because the election is approaching.

People could also be conditioned by the proximity of the budget to the election. Only 23% believe the budget was not dictated by electoral considerations.

Yet Gonzi still remains an asset for the PN. When asked whom they trust most to administer the country’s finances, 37% chose Gonzi while 30% chose Alfred Sant.

Significantly Gonzi enjoys a higher standing among undecided voters, and those who would not disclose their vote or are intent on not voting. While 24% have more trust in Gonzi’s ability to administer the country’s finances, only 13% prefer Sant – an indication that Gonzi has managed to convince a substantial chunk of non-Nationalists that he is a “safe pair of hands”.

But a substantial 20% trust neither Gonzi nor Sant in this fundamental aspect of public life.

63% of those respondents who did not reveal their voting intentions also gave a positive assessment to the budget. Gonzi’s trust and the budget’s popularity among these voters indicates that the PN can make still make inroads among this category in the weeks preceding the election.

Despite the Ramla l-Hamra U-turn and other environmentally friendly decisions by the government, Alternattiva Demokratika has retained its small but constant 2.5% support. For the first time since July, Josie Muscat’s Azzjoni Nazzjonali also features in the survey with 0.9%.

One sure indication that the next election is very hard to call is that 56% of respondents could not tell who would win the election. The rest were split right down the middle over a Labour or Nationalist victory.

Men favour PN, women Labour

Surprisingly the survey shows that while the PN enjoys a higher support among males and those over 55 years of age, Labour beats the PN among females and those aged 35-54. The younger age group also tends to incline towards Labour.

Labour enjoys its strongest lead in the 35-54 group with a lead of 12.6% over the PN. It also enjoys a 5.3% lead among those aged 18-34. On the other hand the PN leads by 2% among those aged over 55.

But the PN fares better among men than women, with a 5% lead among males, while Labour enjoys a 5.4% lead among females.

Methodology

The survey was conducted between Monday 29 and Wednesday 31 October. A total of 454 respondents were randomly chosen from the telephone directory, with 300 accepting to be interviewed. The results were weighed according to the age and sex distribution of the population. The survey has a margin of error of +/-5%.

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PN strategy group meets to discuss polls

The PN strategy group met on Friday and was presented with a detailed survey of the latest opinion polls.

The polls were compared to surveys carried out before previous elections. The strategy group focused its discussion on the prevalence of undecided voters, who appear to be mainly in the higher economic bracket.

Interestingly the role of the ‘independent’ media and its impact on this particular electoral segment was also debated.

Though the percentage of undecided voters has declined, it remains of serious concern to the Nationalist party.

At the meeting, the PN strategy group, which includes Rev. Prof. Peter Serracino Inglott and Richard Cachia Caruana, also discussed the date for the election that now will definitely be held in 2008.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt