With 3 weeks to go for D-day, the MLP retained a wafer thin 1.7% advantage over the PN-an advantage which falls within the survey’s margin of error of +/-3.3%.
This was the first MaltaToday survey conducted over a larger sample of 900 respondents-a sharp increase from the 300 respondents contacted in all previous surveys.
Over the past week both big parties have slightly increased their voting share while AD suffered a 1% drop in support.
For the past six months AD’s support has oscillated between 2% and 3%.
Despite Labour’s slight advantage Prime Lawrence Gonzi- who is being promoted as his party’s best electoral asset - is still slightly ahead of Alfred Sant as the preferred Prime Minister after the next general election.
The survey indicates that the Gonzipn strategy is reaping rewards for his party.
Significantly Gonzi has seen his popularity increase from 29% on the eve of the election campaign to 43% now.
Still Alfred Sant who is not being promoted in the same presidential style as Gonzi, has also seen his popularity rise from 35% to 42% over the past two weeks.
In fact the two leaders have seen an increase in support during the past week, with the number expressing no preference between the two leaders dropping from 31% to 16%.
Yet despite the fact that both parties are neck to neck, the survey shows PN is still suffering from a haemorrhage of votes from it’s 2003 vote count.
This emerges from an analysis of how respondents who declare voting PN or MLP in the 2003 election would vote on the March 8 election.
While only 1.4% of MLP voters in 2003 would vote PN now, 9% of PN voters in 2003 will now vote for the MLP. Only 1.5% of former PN voters are shifting towards AD which also gains 0.7% from Labour.
Significantly while in last week’s survey PN voters migrated in equal measures to both the MLP and AD, in this week’s survey PN voters were directly shifting to the MLP.
With the PN excluding a coalition with AD, the Prime Minister promising a reform of MEPA and the PN friendly columnists lambasting AD, PN voters in 2003 seem to be shifting directly towards the MLP rather than towards the Greens.
Yet the PN’s substantial drop in support from 2003 is not reflected in the survey result which shows both parties neck to neck.
This paradox results from the fact that former PN voters are over represented in the survey.
While 44% claim to have voted PN in 2003 only 31% claim to have voted Labour. A quarter of respondents refused to divulge how they had voted in 2003.
This could be an indication either that Labour voters were less willing to declare their vote in the 2003 election than PN voters or that PN inclined voters were more willing to participate in the survey.

Who do you prefer as your next Prime Minister after the election?

Lawrence Gonzi 42.9
Alfred Sant 41.5
None 4
Don’t Know 8
No Reply 3.7

Top Concerns

Cost of Living 27.8
Lack of Work 8.3
Environment 3
Euro 3
Surcharge 3
Roads 2.8
Politicians 2.3
Immigration 2.2

Who did you vote for in the 2003 general election?

MLP 31
PN 44.3
AD 1.1
Under age 3.3
No Reply 20.2

Voting Intentions of PN voters in 2003

MLP 9.3
PN 65.9
AD 1.5
Not Voting 2.8
Don’t Know 13.8
No Reply 6.8

Voting intentions of MLP voters in 2003

MLP 81
PN 1.4
AD 0.7
Not Voting 0.4
Don’t Know 12.2
No Reply 4.3

Methodology
The survey was held between Monday 11 February and Thursday 14 February. A total of 1543 persons were contacted, 900 of which accepted to participate in the survey. The survey results were weighed according to age/sex distribution of the population. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.26%.