They think the budget was generous; but only because an election is just round the corner.
They think it was not “too little” as Labour would have it, but surely it was “too late”.
Most of them trust Lawrence Gonzi more than Alfred Sant; but that does not necessarily mean they will vote PN.
And the cost of living is their top concern, while some of them are also concerned by immigration, the environment, corruption and partisan pique.
This is the profile of voters opting for none of the four Maltese political parties emerging from MaltaToday surveys which last week revealed an overall positive verdict for Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi’s budget, but that Labour was leading by a hairline 0.4% lead.
Surely, the number of undecided voters is now shrinking as more people make up their mind as the election approaches. And so far, most of those taking a decision are opting for the PN.
The number of non-committed voters has declined by nearly 12% between July and November. But at the same time frame, the PN has seen its support rise by 11.7% while Labour has only seen a small but precious gain of 2.5%.
Yet despite the PN’s gains from the non-committed, the MLP managed to keep a hairline lead over the PN.
The non-committed category of voters includes all those who do not opt for any party. It includes the undecided, those who would not disclose voting intentions and those intending not to vote. The sharpest drop in the past months was experienced by those intent on not voting. The ‘non-voters’ party’ support has now dropped from 12% to just 5% after the budget.
The first considerable drop in “non-committed” voters occurred between July and September when their numbers dropped by a substantial 8.1%. In this period the PN recovered from its lowest ebb in July when its support fell to 18%, to gain 7.6%. In the same period the MLP also saw its support rising by 3.3%. This was a clear indication that “non-committed” voters were mostly shifting towards the PN.
Yet a survey held a few days after Independence Day when the two parties organised mass activities, the number of non committed voters jumped again by 5.8%. The PN lost no support, remaining stuck at 26%. But the MLP saw its support dip by 5.7% – an indication of people’s reaction to Sant’s dismal performance at Birzebbugia, a chunk of MLP voters were too embarrassed to declare their support for Alfred Sant’s party, Their temporary defection to the “non-committed camp” gave the PN a hairline advantage on the MLP.
Yet following the budget, non-committed voters dipped once again by a staggering 10.4%. The drop resulted in a rise in support for both parties. While the PN gained 4.1% the MLP gained 4.9%.
While the budget helped the PN to recover a new chunk of middle-of-the-road voters, the MLP managed to recover the losses endured following the Birzebbugia debacle.
What MaltaToday surveys show is that while the MLP retained the support it enjoyed in July, with its support hovering around 30%, the PN has seen its support grow by 7.6% between July and September and again by 4.1% following the budget.
Yet with a third of survey respondents remaining uncommitted, the million-dollar question is whether the PN make further inroads among this category of voters to win a majority of votes.
The latest MaltaToday survey shows that while 11.4% of non-committed voters declare they had voted for PN in the 2003 election, 9.5% had voted Labour.
If both parties recover all their former voters, the PN and the MLP will still be neck and neck, with the PN having a hairline advantage.
The situation was quite different two months before the budget when 23% of non-committed voters declared they had voted PN in the 2003 election and only 11% had voted MLP.
This is a clear indication that the PN has already recovered a substantial chunk of its past supporters without gaining enough to surpass the MLP. Yet since 70% of non-committed voters did not reveal how they had voted in 2003, one has to look at other indications.
One indication is that Lawrence Gonzi enjoys a higher trust rating than Alfred Sant among this category of voters. The latest survey shows that 37% of non-committed voters prefer Gonzi to Sant when it comes to administering public finances. On the other hand 30% prefer Sant to Gonzi.
Yet a personal preference for Gonzi does not necessarily translate in a vote for a PN government – which also includes unpopular ministers. Even 3% of Labour voters trust Gonzi more than Sant as regards public finances.
The survey also shows that an absolute majority of 50.5% of non-committed voters agree with the MLP that the budget measures have come “too late” and 75% consider the budget as an electoral one. Yet only 26.7% agree with the MLP’s slogan that the budget was “too little.”
This is an indication that non-committed voters are not easily swayed by slogans and retain a degree of independent judgement. When it comes to concerns, the cost of living emerges as the greatest concern of the non-committed voter, an indication that the MLP is in synch with these voters.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt