The Nationalist Party gained 4% during the third week of the electoral campaign to snatch a slender 1.8% advantage over the MLP, previously leading by 1.7%.
Yet the two big parties are still neck and neck, with the difference between the two parties still falling within the +/-3.3% margin of error of the survey. Theoretically, this can put either party in the lead.
For the second consecutive week, the MaltaToday survey took a sample size of 900 respondents.
The PN’s rise in support comes in the wake of a 5% decrease in the number of undecided voters and a 0.7% decrease among those intending not to vote.
Still, despite the increase in committed voters, a significant 27% of respondents are still undecided or refusing to divulge their voting intentions.
Surprisingly, the PN’s increase in support comes despite a 0.8% increase in AD’s support.
The Green Party’s resilience at 2.6% defies a PN TV campaign spot warning potential third party voters that a vote for AD or AN is a vote for Alfred Sant. The campaign was echoed in a series of articles harping the same message in the English language press.
During the past week the MLP has seen a small 0.6% increase in its share of the vote. Yet this increase was not enough to compensate for the swing of undecided voters in favour of the incumbent party.
This result could be an indication that the PN’s slick and personalised campaign is more incisive than the MLP’s more cautious and corporate equivalent.
Lawrence Gonzi also emerges as the preferred Prime Minister of 46% of respondents with Alfred Sant emerging as the choice of 39%, another sign that the Gonzipn campaign is leaving an impact on voters.
In this case, the gap between the two politicians is well beyond the survey’s +/-3.3% margin of error.
Despite the PN’s lead, the same survey still shows PN voters in the 2003 general election shifting in greater numbers to the opposing parties than MLP past voters.
While the PN loses 9.3% to the MLP and 2.6% to AD, the MLP only loses 2.2% to the PN and 0.8% to the other two parties combined.
PN support over-represented Yet the PN’s substantial drop in support from its 2003 voting base is not reflected in the survey result which shows it having a slight advantage over the MLP.
This paradox arises from the fact that former PN voters are over-represented in the survey. While 46% claim to have voted PN in 2003, only 30% claim to have voted Labour. A quarter of respondents refused to divulge how they had voted in 2003.
This could be an indication either that Labour voters were less willing to declare their vote in the 2003 election than PN voters or that PN inclined voters were more willing to participate in the survey than their Labour counterparts.
The propensity of first time voters towards the PN is another factor contributing to the PN’s overall lead despite the shift of former PN voters.
Among this category, 41% chose the PN while only 24% chose the MLP.
Voting intentions %
PN 34.5
MLP 32.7
AD 2.6
AN 0.6
Not voting 2.9
Don’t know 15
No reply 11.8
Before Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
MLP 30.2 31.3 32.1 32.7
PN 24.6 29.6 30.6 34.5
AD 2 3 1.8 2.6
AN 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.6
Not Voting 5.5 4 3.6 2.9
Undecided 18.1 13 20.1 15
No Reply 19 18.3 11.5 11.8
Who would you prefer as your next Prime Minister? %
Alfred Sant 39.3
Lawrence Gonzi 46.3
None 3.4
Don’t know 7
No reply 4.1
Before Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
Alfred Sant 35.1 33 41.3 39.3
Lawrence Gonzi 29.2 35.7 43 46.3
None 5.8 6.3 4 3.4
No answer 29.8 25 11.7 4.1
How respondents voted in 2003 general election %
MLP 30.2
PN 46.6
AD 1.5
Under 18 3.3
No Reply 18.3
Voting intentions of PN voters in 2003
MLP 9.3
PN 66.6
AD 2.6
AN 0.2
Not Voting 2.4
Don’t Know 12.1
No Reply 6.9
Voting intentions of MLP voters in 2003
MLP 83.5
PN 2.2
AD 0.4
AN 0.4
Not Voting 1.1
Don’t Know 9.2
No Reply 3.3
Top 5 concerns Cost of living 23.4
Lack of work 7.1
Environment 3.9
Surcharge 3.7
Alfred Sant/Labour 3.1
Corruption 2.7
Illegal immigration 1.9
Methodology The survey was held between Monday 18 and Thursday 21 February. A total of 1,638 respondents were randomly selected from the telephone directory with 900 accepting to be interviewed. The survey was stopped as soon as the 900 quota target was reached. The survey results were weighed according to the age and sex distribution of the population in the 2006 demographic review. The survey has a margin of error of +/-3.26%.
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