With the two parties practically neck and neck, AD emerges as a potential king maker even if the present electoral system militates against the possibility of an AD seat in parliament, which would require a surge of support in one particular district.
Yet AD’s resilience in the polls shows the limits of a campaign conducted by leading opinion-makers, warning voters that a vote for AD would hand victory to Labour, especially with voters who had only voted for the PN in 2003 because of the European Union issue.
The survey indicates that during the first week, a number of previously uncommitted voters have shifted towards the PN but this was not enough for the PN to surpass Labour.
With the PN’s campaign focusing exclusively on Lawrence Gonzi’s personality, the PN leader has seen a boost in support with the number of those preferring him as their next Prime Minister rising from 29% to 35%, thus reversing last week’s survey which showed Sant in the lead.
Gonzi’s higher ratings in the polls could explain why the PN has adopted the Gonzipn logo which capitalises on Gonzi being more popular than his own party.
Yet despite the MLP’s less presidential style of campaigning Sant emerges as the preferred choice with 33% – just 2.7% away from Gonzi – and with his party still leading the polls.
Significantly 15.9% of those prefer Gonzi as their next Prime Minister are still undecided on whom to vote in the next election. Only 9% of those preferring Sant as their next Prime Minister are still undecided.
But despite indications that the Gonzi card could boost the PN’s fortunes, the survey shows that the PN still faces a haemorrhage of votes to AD and Labour.
In fact, while none of Labour voters in 2003 have shifted to either the PN or AD, 5.4% of PN have shifted towards Labour while 4.6% would be voting AD.
The survey includes a prevalence of voters who had voted PN in the 2003 election, with 43.3% claiming to have voted for the PN and only 28.7% claiming to have voted Labour. This could be an indication that former PN voters were more willing to declare their past voting intentions in MaltaToday’s survey than former Labour voters.

Survey methodology
A total of 453 respondents were randomly chosen from the directory with 300 accepting to participate in the survey. The survey was held between Wednesday and Thursday.
The survey has a margin of error of +/-5.7%.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt