Over the past two months, Labour has doubled its lead over the PN from three to six percentage points, and for the first time ever in MaltaToday’s surveys, the Labour leader is preferred to incumbent Lawrence Gonzi as Malta’s next Prime Minister.
This could be an indication that Sant’s comeback from his recent illness has boosted his appeal among voters. The survey was carried out between Monday and Wednesday, when the political agenda had been set by Alfred Sant’s speech on Sunday’s MLP general conference.
Sant’s resurgent popularity complicates matters for the PN which is banking on previous surveys showing Gonzi leading Sant when it comes to a choice of leaders.
Since December, when the last MaltaToday survey was held, the PN has retained the same level of support, while the MLP has gained a further three percentage points. The MLP’s gains comes in the wake of a 3% drop in those claiming that they would not vote in the next election.
Still, despite the clear signs that an election is forthcoming in the next few weeks, 43% of respondents remain uncommitted to any party.
While 35% prefer Alfred Sant as their next Prime Minister, only 29% prefer Gonzi. Sant has effectively gained 14% since September, following the B’Bugia “Gooonzi” fiasco, when only 21% preferred him to Gonzi as their next Prime Minister.
But Sant still trails behind Gonzi when it comes to personal trust. This could be an indication that a desire for change could prevail over the personal trust factor, when voters are asked to choose their Prime Minister.
Although Gonzi remains the most trusted political leader, Sant has recovered nearly 7% since May last year (the last time voters were asked this question) and trails Gonzi by just 3%.
Completely absent from the first “unofficial” week of the campaign, AD leader Harry Vassallo attracts a low trust rating of 1.6%. Eclipsed by the billboards and rallies of the other two mainstream parties, the Greens have managed to cling to their consistent 2%.
One piece of bad news for the two small parties is that bread and butter issues like the cost of living and jobs, which dominate the agendas of the big parties, have eclipsed all other concerns. While back in September the environment was a top concern for 7.3% of respondents, it is now a top concern for only 3.9%.
Illegal immigration remains the fourth most important concern even if it is less of a concern than it was in September when boatloads of immigrants were still making the news.
Azzjoni Nazzjonali still registers a lowly 0.6%, but one has to keep in mind that support for far right parties tends to be underestimated in polls across Europe.
Significantly a small shift from the PN to the MLP emerges from the survey.
While 6% of Nationalist voters in 2003 claim that they would vote for the MLP, now only 2.4% of MLP voters in 2003 have switched sides. This indicates a 3.6% shift from the PN to the MLP.
Past Nationalist voters also tend to be more undecided than their Labour counterparts. While 20% of PN voters in 2003 are either undecided or refuse to disclose their voting intentions, fewer than 5% of Labour voters in 2003 are in the same position.