The Nationalist Party faces an uphill struggle convincing the electorate that its time is not up. Not only does Labour now enjoy a 3% lead over the PN, but 54.3% of respondents think that the country needs a change of government.
Yet desire for a change in government does not necessarily translate into support for the Labour’s government in waiting. Without even being prompted, 6% qualified their “yes” saying that they would not like to see an MLP-led government.
Another 8% of those who think that a change in government is good for the country would still vote for the PN in a general election.
Yet with Labour opening a 3% lead after two consecutive surveys in which the PN was at par with Labour, the indications are once again pointing towards a Labour victory.
The bad news for the PN is that among non-committed voters - a crucial category which includes the undecided, non voters and those who refuse to divulge their voting intentions - only 16% think that the country does not need a change in government.
Among non-committed voters 45% would think that the country needs a change while a pivotal 5.8% (2.7% of the entire sample) think that country needs change but add that Labour is not fit for government.
This is a clear indication that Labour Leader Alfred Sant is in synch with the electorate when he constantly harps on the need for change, even if the MLP is not exploiting this advantage to the full.
Neither are those who want change in government but won’t trust the MLP drifting en masse for the smaller parties. Support for Alternattiva Demokratika has remained stable above the 2% mark, while support for Azzjoni Nazzjonali remains below the 1% mark. Yet with so many people undecided and desiring change, third parties have a potential reserve of votes.
The survey sees the number of non-committed voters rising by 10% over the past month. Amidst rumours of an election in early December, their numbers had dropped drastically in the November survey. But with the election “postponed” to next year, their numbers have risen again.
The increase in non-committed voters corresponds with a sharp 6% drop in support for the PN, which peaked at 30% in the November survey, and a smaller drop of 3.5% in support for the MLP.
This is an indication that the PN has practically lost the momentum gained from a perceived build-up for an end of year election after the budget bonanza. By announcing that the election will be held next year, the Prime Minister could have lost a favourable moment for his party.
Even the number of those who believe in a Nationalist victory has now declined from 22.3% to just 18.4%.
In the last survey the PN had managed to rein in a significant portion of non-committed voters. Significantly the number of those intending not to vote in a forthcoming election which fell from 11% to 5% between October and November has risen again to 8% in December.
The survey shows no big shifts between the two large parties. But a significant 3.6% of Nationalist voters in 2003 are now determined to vote for the MLP. Very significantly, 6.3% of past Nationalist Party voters would not reveal their voting intentions in the next election.

Methodological note
441 respondents were randomly chosen from the telephone directory with 300 accepting to be interviewed. The survey was conducted between Monday 26 November and Thursday 29 November. The survey has a margin of error of 5.7%.