A comparison of surveys conducted by four different organisations over the past two months shows that the race for the MLP leadership race has gone full circle.
While Joseph Muscat started the race with massive support among Labourites, but very low ratings among other categories of voters, he has now managed to win over a majority of floating voters and a good chunk of Nationalists.
George Abela, on the other hand, started the race as an outsider in his own party, and has gained ground among Labour voters, only to lose popularity among floaters.
A timeline of the various surveys conducted during the past month shows that as the campaign progressed, Muscat managed to widen his appeal among non-Labourites.
While the first survey conducted by economist Alfred Mifsud showed Muscat trailing Abela by 23% among floating voters, the latest survey conducted by Xarabank showed Muscat 3.5 percentage points ahead of Abela among this pivotal category of voters.
This suggests that in the past two months, Muscat has gained a substantial 18% among middle of the road voters.
Muscat has also scored inroads among Nationalist voters, gaining 12% in the past two months. George Abela still leads Muscat among Nationalist voters, but the young Turk has also managed to make inroads in the PN camp, despite being depicted as an Alfred Sant stooge in the PN media.
Muscat’s weakness among floating voters and Nationalist voters was initially interpreted as a sign that Abela was in a better position to appeal to non-Labour voters, and win the next election.
But Muscat’s resurgence among these two categories of voters has debunked this theory. Muscat’s rise among non-Labour voters corresponds with the young pretender’s efforts to distance himself from Alfred Sant, and to project his European credentials during the past two months of campaigning.
While losing ground among floating voters, Abela has strengthened his position among Labour voters. After a decade in the political wilderness after clashing openly with former leader Alfred Sant, George Abela started the race as an outsider, scoring a mere 11% among MLP voters in the first survey held in the beginning of April.
Yet as the campaign progressed, Abela managed to find his well-earned place in Labour’s mainstream. By May 4, Abela had already gained the support of 25% of Labour voters against Muscat’s 44%.
By the end of the month, while Abela’s support among MLP voters rose to 31%, Muscat’s support slipped to 36%. This could be an indication that in his bid to reach out to middle of the road voters, Muscat could have alienated a segment of more traditional Labour supporters.
Significantly the more traditional Michael Falzon also managed to score inroads among Labour voters, increasing his score by 10% from his initial 9% in April, to 19.5% in the latest survey.
Significantly, the various polls suggest that the Labour contest is dividing the Maltese across generational lines.
The latest Xarabank poll showed Muscat leading Abela by 8% among 16-25 year-olds. Polls held before the election showed that the Nationalist Party was strongest in this pivotal category.
Various analysts contend that despite a clear shift from the PN to the MLP, the PN was still able to win the March 8 election through the support of first-time voters. Muscat’s popularity among this category could well offset this trend.
Yet Abela’s considerable lead among older voters suggests that Muscat’s youth could alienate older voters used to political leaders who are in their own age bracket.
On a national level – when all respondents are taken into account – the various surveys show that after losing ground to Abela in the first month of the campaign, the last few weeks have seen Muscat edging closer to Abela.
In MaltaToday’s May 4 survey the gap between Abela and Muscat amounted to 9%. In the latest Xarabank poll Muscat narrowed this gap to a mere 3.6%.
Opinion polls can only influence the 900 delegates who will choose the next MLP leader on Thursday. MaltaToday was the only media organisation to conduct a survey among delegates.
The survey published on 18 May showed Joseph Muscat enjoying the support of 31.5% of delegates who accepted to participate in the survey and of 58.6% of those who have made up their mind.
Abela emerged as the runner-up with a support of 18.6% of committed delegates.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt