Gerald Fenech analyses the implications of the forthcoming election in the UK and those seats which are crucial to all three parties if any one of them is going to have a shot at winning or becoming a power broker in a hung Parliament
As we enter the third week of the campaign in the UK, the die appears to be cast on one singular issue – this election is going down to the wire especially after the first debate between the three party leaders on Thursday. This saw the new and unknown leader of the Liberal Party Nick Clegg score astonishingly well, gaining over 61% approval of TV viewers, with Conservative Party leader David Cameron and Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown far behind on 22 and 17% respectively.
The latest batch of polls, according to The Times, shows the Conservatives regaining some traction at anything between 35 and 41 per cent whilst Labour is on 29 to 32%. The Liberals support fluctuates between 18 and 22% and if they manage to score anything towards the higher level they will most probably deny the Conservatives an overall majority, as they will either keep their marginals or probably make some gains from the Tories. Labour is positioned to remain sizeably represented in parliament due to its heavy presence in the cities, where much more seats are concentrated. In fact, with a result of the Conservatives at around 40% of the vote, Labour with 33% and the Liberals on 21%, the Tories will only have a majority of four – clearly unworkable and extremely unstable.
The crucial seats: The Conservatives need a swing of 4.3% which translates into a net gain of 72 seats to become the largest party. Several of these seats are in Labour heartlands such as Birmingham Edgbaston, Burton, Bury North, Calder Valley, Cardiff North, Wolverhampton North, Vale of Glamorgan and Portsmouth South. They also need to nick seats from the Liberals such as Angus and Perth and Perthshire North in Scotland where for some time, the Conservatives did not even have a seat. Labour are simply targeting 10 seats, which include several marginals currently held by the Conservatives with a wafer-thin majority such as Finchley and Golders Green, Hemel Hempstead, Somerset North East and Wellingborough. Then there is the expenses scandal, where a considerable number of MPs (although mostly from the Conservative side) have been embroiled in financial impropriety – this could have a singular effect on the results although the Liberal Democrats are the most likely to gain from this situation. Hundreds of constituencies have also been redrawn, making it much more difficult to tell which way the seats will go, although the boundaries seem to favour the Conservatives after several years of Labour dominated electoral revisions.
Although the fringe parties in the UK are mostly seen as an aberration, this time round there are some parties which could register some levels of support which could even tip some closely fought seats in their favour. The Green Party may ride on the current climate change sentiment in Norwich South and Brighton Pavilion where the MEP Caroline Lucas may be expected to win the latter seat. The UK Independence Party is said to be competitive in Buckingham which will not make much difference on the overall result, while the anti-immigration British National Party is targeting Barking, which has been a solid Labour seat since 1945 but which has since had its boundaries redrawn.
Party policies: As expected, Labour is priding itself on its record during the economic crisis, where it claims that it has handled the economy quite well considering the disaster all over Europe. However, it is being attacked by the Tories on the massive rise in the national debt as well as profligate and wasteful spending. David Cameron and George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor are looking at toying with National Insurance and freezing public sector pay to save billions of pounds while hoping to regenerate consumer spending. The Liberals are also talking about the economy offering tax concessions and other similar niceties, although the effect of their eventual policies is remote, to say the least, if they do not team up with one of the parties in a coalition. So it is clear that this election will be fought on the economy as the major issue – unsurprising since the continued talk of economic recovery after the great recession is still not being felt by the people. Banking regulation has also become a top issue with all parties adamant that further curbs will have to be made on the excessive profits paid out to top executives.
The outcome: At this stage, a Conservative victory, albeit slender, appears to be the most likely scenario. But after the bounce enjoyed by both major parties after the launch of their respective manifestos, it seems that the Liberals will be the kingmakers for the first time since the First World War and the reign of Asquith and Lloyd George. There is the real possibility of a hung Parliament with the only viable option then being a Lab-Lib coalition with the Conservatives left out in the cold for another four years. However that option is far from certain, as both Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown are keeping their cards close to their chest on the eventual outcome of intra-party talks. This certainly looks to be the most exciting election since 1992, when John Major won an unprecedented fourth term for the Conservatives, beating near-cert Neil Kinnock to a stunning victory, although that eventually backfired in 1997, with the Tories losing in record numbers and never really recovering since.
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