The law of unintended consequences, often cited but rarely defined, says that actions of people – and especially of governments – always have effects that are unanticipated or unintended. Economists and other social scientists have recognised the tangible reality of this law for many years, while politicians have largely tended to ignore it.
In their book, ‘Superfeakonomics’, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Durbner give an interesting example of a classic unintended consequence: how the spread of television in India has led unexpectedly to more female empowerment and a measureable fall in the birth-rate. “State run broadcast TV had been around for decades,” the authors explain, “but poor reception and a dearth of programming meant there simply wasn’t much reason to watch.” Then, following a steep fall in the price of television sets and distribution systems, large areas of India were wired for cable television. Between 2001 and 2006, some 150 million Indians started receiving cable TV broadcast from the big cities of India and abroad.
Not every village got cable TV and those that did started receiving it at different times. “This staggered introduction produced just the kind of data that economists love to exploit,” explain the two authors of the book. By measuring the changes in different villages, two young American economists managed to illustrate the effect of TV on the ordinary lives of Indian women.
Price controls – to give another example – are intended to keep prices closer to usual levels. An unintended consequence is that suppliers would be less willing to sell at the government-controlled prices, and so consumers end up with a shortage of goods where they are badly needed. The unintended consequences of the legal necessity of electricians having to be licensed, to take another example, keeps the supply of electricians below what it would otherwise be, and thus keeps the price of electricians’ services higher than otherwise. One other unintended consequence is that people sometimes do their own electrical work, and, occasionally, one of these amateurs is electrocuted.
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The law of unintended consequences can be seen to work also in the local political scene, even though in this rumour-infested island there are many who insist that whatever happens must necessarily be the result of a conspiracy hatched by some follower of Machiavelli’s advice to his prince!
An unintended consequence of John Dalli becoming the second Maltese EU Commissioner is the fact that after Dalli’s move to Brussels, none of the Ministers and Parliamentary Secretaries who in May 1987 were appointed as members of Eddie Fenech Adami’s first Cabinet will be still serving as members of the country’s executive.
This is assuming that Louis Galea will not return to a Cabinet post via the casual election that will eventually be held to fill John Dalli’s seat in the House of Representatives. Personally, I do not think that Louis Galea will give it a try, even though the PN propaganda machine tried to spin this return as some intended consequence of John Dalli’s appointment.
This development will be a really appropriate follow-up after the end of Eddie Fenech Adami’s term as President of the Republic earlier this year and makes 2009 a watershed year in the PN’s history.
Those of my age who were protagonists of the incredible silent revolution that was wrought by the first Fenech Adami administration (1987-92) will certainly be tempted to look back nostalgically at the battles that were fought for the PN to arrive at its destination from where it could then launch this revolution. These sentiments can hardly be shared with the present incumbents in the top posts of the country, who are sometimes perceived as looking at those who came before them with almost a hint of disdain.
There is nothing wrong in looking forward with a renewed vision of Malta’s future, but forgetting where we came from is a mistake, even though it could well be an unintended consequence of the eagerness with which the present administration appraises this vision.
One should never forget the words of poet and philosopher George Santayana: ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’ – a warning about yet another unintended consequence that many may be tempted to disregard.
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Last Sunday this newspaper reported the unintended consequence of a decision taken by the Nationalist government in 1967 to requisition a house in Santa Venera. Contrary to what a legal counsel was reported to have told this newspaper, the PN administration had not ‘originally requisitioned the property for no discernible public purpose’.
The house was requisitioned in preparation of the then proposed arterial road joining the Msida end of the Regional Road with Marsa, crossing Santa Venera in the process. The project was stalled for some time although the roads on each side of the link were, in fact, constructed at that time.
When Labour won the 1971 election, the project was apparently abandoned. Instead of releasing the house to its rightful owners, the Labour government took an unwarranted advantage from the prevailing situation and ‘leased’ it as an MLP club – as it actually is even up to this day. This atrocious way of doing things was a characteristic of the Labour 1971-87 administrations. No such abuses were carried out by the Nationalist administrations, notwithstanding the vain efforts of those who are obsessed with equating the performance of the two parties when in government.
Eventually, after the change in government in 1987, when I was Minister responsible for the Development of the Infrastructure, the project was resuscitated as it was obvious that there was a need for a road link between the south and the north of Malta such that traffic in both directions avoided Msida and Blata l-Bajda. Luckily, by that time, tunnelling by mechanical means had become cheaper and instead of an arterial road passing through the heart of Santa Venera and splitting the locality into two distinct parts, the road was passed under Santa Venera through a tunnel.
In fact, the urban fabric and the physical integrity of Santa Venera were saved – an unintended consequence of the delay in carrying out the project – while as a result of another unintended consequence the Labour Party continued occupying the premises that were originally requisitioned because of the road project.
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