News | Sunday, 27 December 2009

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A year of surveys

2009 confirmed MaltaToday’s reputation for accurate electoral predictions in a year marked by Lawrence Gonzi’s dip in popularity and changing patterns of consumption in the year of the credit crunch

MaltaToday’s surveys not only foresaw Labour poised for an absolute majority in last June’s MEP elections, but also made accurate predictions on the first count results gained by the candidates of the two major parties, and correctly identified Labour’s top-five and the PN’s top-three frontrunners.
While the survey showed 21% of declared Labour voters opting for Louis Grech, the actual result showed Grech scoring 20.4% of the Labour vote. Edward Scicluna, who was poised to get 20.3% of the Labour vote, ended up getting 18%.
The surveys predicted the poor first-count results of Labour incumbents Glenn Bedingfield and John Attard Montalto, who only managed to get elected in the last counts after inheriting votes of eliminated Labour candidates. And it also foresaw Busuttil’s mammoth vote, with incumbent David Casa and Roberta Metsola Tedesco Triccas as the other PN frontrunners.
The surveys also foresaw that Alternattiva Demokratika candidate Arnold Cassola’s result would be a far cry from his result in 2004, even if it predicted a higher percentage for the Greens and a lower percentage for Norman Lowell.
The last two MaltaToday surveys, which had a margin of error of 3.7%, showed Labour poised for an absolute majority of 52% with the PN getting 42% of votes. In the actual election Labour fared even better, getting 54.7% against the PN’s 40.5%.

Gonzi in freefall
A survey conducted in October showed Lawrence Gonzi’s trust rating dipping by eight percentage points since the previous year, down to 23%. 19% judged his performance as Prime Minister positively down from 38% the previous year. Nearly 20% who voted PN in 2008 judged his performance negatively. Only 15% said they would vote for the PN if an election was held the next day. And for the third consecutive time in MaltaToday’s surveys, Labour leader Joseph Muscat enjoyed a better trust rating than Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.
Finance Minister Tonio Fenech and Infrastructure Minister Austin Gatt saw their popularity nosedive between February and November, MaltaToday’s ‘Rate the Minister’ surveys showed. Despite his fall from grace, Tonio Fenech – whose squeaky-clean image was tainted by a controversy over a freebie trip aboard a businessman’s private jet – remained slightly more popular than Austin Gatt, who hit rock bottom for the second consecutive time.
But Fenech’s positive rating slipped by four percentage points while his negative ratings increased by a staggering 27 percentage points. The abrasive Austin Gatt was judged positively by just 19%.
The number of respondents who rated him negatively increased by 16 points from 33% to 49% between February and November. Significantly, Gatt has seen his positive rating among Nationalist Party voters slip by 14 points.

Shopping trends
A survey on consumption patterns conducted in July showed that one in every five shop at Lidl, the German price-busting multinational supermarket chain. While Smart Supermarket emerged as the singular most popular supermarket outlet in Malta and Gozo followed by Pavi, put together the four Lidl supermarkets already command the largest share of the retail market two years after setting up shop in Malta. Contrary to the widespread perception that Lidl’s appeal is limited to low-income groups struggling to cope with the cost of living – the C1 occupational bracket – in Malta (clerical, vocational and technical workers) are the most likely to shop at Lidl. Even 27% of managers and professionals (AB) shop at Lidl.
A third of respondents still shun supermarkets and shop exclusively from small grocers, which happen to be the preferred choice of older and poorer respondents – an indication that these groups have a lower disposable income, preferring to buy on a daily basis from the grocer. It could also be an indication that pensioners lack the mobility enjoyed by other occupational groups. While only 15% of the top occupational bracket shop from grocers, 44% of unskilled workers and unemployed people (DE) shop from these outlets. 40% of pensioners also shop from grocers.

Restaurant trends
While 10% of the population eats out in a restaurant more than once a week, 25% does so less than once a month, and another 25% again never eats out at all. The majority of respondents (52%) eat in a restaurant less than once a month.
While 85% of professionals and managers eat out more than once a month, only 46.3% of unskilled workers do the same. The self-employed are also hard pressed, with 49% claiming that they eat out less than once a month.
Professionals and managers are also more likely to frequent a greater variety of international cuisines and types of restaurants. A quarter of ABs has been to a Chinese restaurant during the past month while one-fifth have been to a buffet in a hotel. Chinese restaurants emerge as the most popular international cuisine.
But overall the most popular type of restaurant is the pizzeria. While only 2.1% have been eating sushi in a Japanese restaurant, 45% have been to a pizzeria in the past month.

So near yet so different
In September MaltaToday surveyed five localities: Sliema, Marsaskala, Mosta, Qormi and Gozo, finding a great divide in values, concerns and lifestyle.
The surveys showed that at 22%, concern for unemployment is four times higher in Gozo than in Sliema. While the environment comes second at 16% in the list of concerns of Sliema residents, in all other localities it is overtaken by other pressing material concerns.
The cost of living topped the list of concerns in all localities surveyed by MaltaToday but was higher in Mosta and lowest in Sliema. Gozitans were the least likely to be concerned by the state of their roads, while people in southern Marsaskala were the most concerned.
Surprisingly, concern about immigration was highest in Gozo where immigrants are least visible.
The survey found that a fifth of Sliema’s population travelled abroad more than twice a year. But in Qormi, only one in every twenty did likewise. The number of those eating out in a restaurant more than once a week was three times more in Sliema than in Qormi.
While 13% of Sliema residents eat in a restaurant more than once a week, less than half do so in the other localities surveyed.
And while concern for the environment was four times greater in Sliema than in four other Maltese localities, it’s ‘Slimizi’ who were the most likely to put all their rubbish in one bag without sorting it.
But the Slimizi were also the most likely to make the extra effort required to dispose their rubbish in bring-in sites even if they were also the most likely to dispose their rubbish without separating it. On the other hand, Qormi people were the least likely to use bring in sites but the most likely to separate their waste before the Tuesday collection.
The survey showed that while a 54% majority of people in Marsaskala favoured divorce, only 44% if Sliema residents wanted divorce to be introduced. But among respondents aged under 34, the percentage of Sliema residents favouring divorce rose to 67%; which clearly showed a chasm between Sliema’s older and younger population.
Moreover, the survey showed that Qormi and Gozo, are more conservative than the other localities. While in Sliema, Marsaskala and Mosta a majority of respondents aged under 34 favoured divorce in Qormi and Gozo, an anti-divorce majority exists even among the younger respondents.

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