News | Sunday, 04 January 2009

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The big issues

James Debono takes a look at the major social, political and economic issues which only touched the surface in 2008, but which are likely to erupt in 2009

The credit crunch
As other countries like Italy reduce electricity tariffs as the international price of oil continues to fall, the price hike in Malta will appear less justified. If the downward trend in oil prices persists, the next revision of tariffs could see a lightening of the burden. The government will also have to come to grips with decreased spending which could affect its revenue projections for the next year. As the credit crunch takes its toll on the rest of Europe, tourism is likely to be the main casualty. Unemployment will also rear its ugly head, as tourism relies mostly on seasonal, temporary jobs. A defeat for the PN in the Euro elections could trigger a legitimacy crisis, which would create a fertile ground for social unrest.

Immigration
With boatloads of migrants arriving even during the winter months immigration, will no doubt remain a top concern. Disappointment with the EU’s unwillingness to share its responsibility with Malta will grow. In the wake of next June’s elections for the European parliament, both Labour and Azzjoni Nazzjonali might find themselves pandering to popular angst. The temptation to exploit Malta’s latent racism is bound to be high. The economic crisis could also exacerbate a war amongst the poor, as the major parties continue to ignore the need of a national policy on the integration of migrants living in Malta. Things could take an ugly twist if crimes committed by a few migrants are sensationalised by sections of the media. Irresponsible declarations by police officers that open centres have become no go areas for the Maltese only add fuel to the existing fire. For obvious reasons, the government will remain mum on how many migrants actually do not stay in Malta, but somehow find a way to Europe. But its silence will allow the far right to raise the alarm bells.

The Opera House
Opposition to the utilisation of this site for a new parliament building will grow, even if – judging by Din l-Art Helwa’s initial reaction – Renzo Piano seems to be attracting less opposition than when his plans were first proposed in 1988. A civil society movement might be formed to oppose Gonzi’s parliament plans even if it will be difficult to reconcile opera lovers with those who want a less elitist use of the building. As the credit crunch takes its toll, it will be difficult for Gonzi to justify the lavish spending on the new parliament even if the investment could be way of pumping money in the economy at a time of need.

The Presidency
Lawrence Gonzi’s government will be faced by three choices when Eddie Fenech Adami’s term as President expires in April: namely, to appoint a former Nationalist minister, someone from the opposite camp, or a non-partisan President. Probably Gonzi will choose one of his own, as Muscat sows discord in his own party by proposing Lino Spiteri. Voices from civil society would press for the appointment of a non-political person like Giovanni Bonello or Oliver Friggieri. But it unlikely that their voices will be heard.

Ghadira Road
Relations between the government and mainstream environmental NGOs will continue to deteriorate as Austin Gatt insists on his new pet project: the Ghadira road. In so doing he has provided the Greens with a rallying cry to unite them in opposition to the government. Gonzi will be increasingly embarrassed as he sees his environmental credentials tarnished by a fellow Minister. More Nationalist MPs might be tempted to follow Charlo Bonnici in distancing themselves from Gatt on this issue. This could be a prelude to a U-turn similar to that on the Xaghra l-Hamra golf course. But this would come at the tax payer’s expense as money is spend on an environmental impact assessment on the new road.

Local issues
Residents in Nationalist strongholds like Attard, Sliema and Lija will be vigilant on Gonzi’s pre electoral promise to control development and reform MEPA. But GonziPN will find it harder to honour its dues towards big and small contractors while also paying lip service to sustainable development. MEPA will also have to take a decision on controversial issues like the Qui-Si-Sana car park which might resurface after next March’s local elections in Sliema.

MEPA reform
Gonzi will have to present his blueprint for MEPA reform. Ultimately its success will depend on how far Gonzi intends to go. If the reform gives MEPA the power to turn down ODZ applications before they are even considered, Gonzi would show that he means business. Abolishing the present EIA system, through which developers choose their own consultants, would be another step in the right direction. But ultimately it will depend on the political will to enforce the new rules.

Public transport
Bus drivers will face a big dilemma in 2009: either to set their act in order by cooperating with Minister Austin Gatt to reform the dysfunctional service they are currently providing, or face public opprobrium for putting spokes in the wheels of a much-needed reform. Taking on the bus drivers could redeem Gatt in public eyes after losing brownie points by bulldozing all opposition in imposing the new utility tariff system, and irking environmentalists with his Ghadira road plans. But Gatt might lose public sympathy if he applies the same “cost recovery” logic to public transport. For that would mean either a hike in transport fees, or the disruption of unprofitable services. Probably Gatt will realise that subsidising public transport is no longer an ideological anathema.

Armier
After his pre-electoral commitment to grant the Armier squatters building permits for a mega-construction project involving the construction of 1,600 new boathouses instead of the existing 1,200, pressure will pile on Gonzi to honour his promise. But he will probably continue passing the buck on MEPA. In all likelihood, no new permits will be issued but the boathouses will never be demolished.

Trapping
The end of trapping could push a few rednecks to take to the streets. Some hot heads might also resort to vandalism. Yet probably it will be met with resignation by many hunters and trappers, who knew all along that EU membership did not bode well for them. Hunting might be a factor in the European elections, but judging by the results in 2004, not a very big one.

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