News | Sunday, 04 January 2009

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Euro ‘09: High stakes for PL and AD, dilemma for GonziPN

The stakes in next June European elections are higher for PL leader Joseph Muscat and AD chairman Arnold Cassola than for PN leader Lawrence Gonzi; but James Debono argues that the latter has to decide whether to lend his face to a probable and expected defeat

Has Labour won by default thanks to Nationalist disgruntlement, or has Muscat’s PL really managed to convince former Nationalists to vote Labour? Barring the unlikely event of a PN victory against all odds, this will probably be the million-dollar question as the results of next June’s elections start trickling in.
For the moral authority of Malta’s relative majority government will be shaken if Labour does manage to win over 50% of the vote. And if the turnout were also higher than the 82% who voted in 2004, the writing would be on the wall for Lawrence Gonzi. For it would mean that Labour’s victory cannot be explained by a drop in Nationalist voters alone.
A decisive defeat for Gonzi will underline the moral weakness of a government which has so far behaved as if it had won the general election by a landslide, and not by 1,500 votes in an election where the power of incumbency played a vital role.
But even if Labour triumphs in 2009, Muscat will have no reason to rest on his laurels. Gonzi will once again have four long years to recover and garner the strength required for yet another electoral showdown, where the power of incumbency will still play a role.
The fact that Labour starts off as a favourite only adds further pressure on Joseph Muscat to outdo the party’s 2004 performance in his first electoral test.
Led by the discredited Alfred Sant who just a year before had claimed that “partnership” had won the referendum on EU membership, Labour managed to win three seats out of five and 48.4% against the PN’s abysmal 39%.
Still this result proved to be a Pyrrhic victory for Labour, as it cemented Alfred Sant’s hold on the leadership and filled the rank and file with misguided overconfidence.
In reality many of those who voted for AD’s Arnold Cassola and many of those who stayed at home turned out to be disgruntled Nationalist voters who were herded back to the fold to give the PN an improbable victory in last March’s general elections.
Joseph Muscat will be definitely expected to do better than Alfred Sant did in 2004.

Gonzi’s dilemma
For Lawrence Gonzi, the dilemma is: how far he should involve himself in the electoral campaign for next June’s elections?
If he washes his hands of his party’s fate by relegating the European elections to a kind of secondary election, he might well condemn his party to a humiliating defeat... as well as undermine the institution of the European Parliament among Nationalist voters.
But if he exposes himself too much in the campaign he also risks lending his face to a likely defeat. For the probabilities of a defeat for the ruling party are high, considering the dip in purchasing power in the wake of the global economic crisis, and the unpopular hike in utility tariffs.
Ultimately, next June’s Euro election will be a sort of referendum on GonziPN. The choice of which candidate would best represent Malta in Europe will be made when voters choose between candidates fielded by the respective parties.
The “referendum” will be even more binding if Gonzi plays the role of a protagonist. But if he does not, the PN losses could be even heavier as lack of enthusiasm will keep many potential PN voters at home.
In June Gonzi will enjoy the strange advantage of starting the race from 2004’s abysmal result when it didn’t even scrape past the 40% mark while Muscat will have to surpass the 48% mark.
But while Gonzi has already proved that he may well win a national election four years after being trounced in a European election, the stakes are much higher for Muscat himself, who will be facing his first electoral test as MLP leader.

Spoilt for choice?
Reaching out to the middle of the road voter without losing a latent eurosceptic residue from the pre 2003 days seems to be Muscat’s strategy for winning these elections.
Judging by the candidates who have already confirmed their intention to contest, Labour’s strategy this time around will be that of fielding a very wide spectrum of candidates, ranging from eurosceptic Sharon Ellul Bonici to Europhiles and moderates like Edward Scicluna and Marlene Mizzi.
The big disappointment for Muscat will be the absence of George Abela, who not openly backed Malta’s EU accession bid, but also enjoyed the respect of many pale blue voters who consider Abela as one of their own. Mizzi and Scicluna have only partly compensated for Abela’s absence.
So far the prospective candidates fall under three broad categories: ‘Mintoffians’ who fell out with Alfred Sant, like Marija Camilleri; loyalists like MP Joe Cuschieri for the core voter; and the moderates for the middle-of-the-road voters, like Marlene Mizzi and Edward Scicluna and the incumbent Louis Grech.
The mix is certainly diverse: Ellul Bonici may be known for her militancy in eurosceptic groups but her extremely liberal views on social issues could also appeal to progressive and left-wing voters. Even former environmentalist Steve Borg, previously known as an AD activist, has joined the fray.
By paying the ultimate price of giving up his seat to allow Joseph Muscat to become Opposition leader, Joseph Cuschieri may well end up in the European parliament in what now appears as a golden handshake agreement.
Yet in so doing Labour diehards might end up electing someone with little knowledge of European affairs, instead of someone with the stature of Edward Scicluna.
Both Marlene Mizzi and Edward Scicluna are pivotal in the party’s strategy to build a new majority in the country. Yet it remains doubtful whether these two newcomers enjoy enough grass root support to beat the competition of newcomers like Cuschieri and incumbents like the maverick John Attard Montalto, who has already splashed money on newspaper adverts during the festive season.
What’s sure is that this time round Labour lacks a frontrunner like Muscat in 2004 who snatched 37,000 first count votes. This could lead to fierce competition among Labour candidates which could undermine Muscat’s message of unity. And Labour’s mess is further complicated by its ultra democratic way of selecting candidates.
While in 2004 each candidate needed a 70% endorsement –a threshold which blocked high profile candidatures like that of former general secretary Jimmy Magro, this time round candidates will only need a 50% plus one endorsement from delegates.
And the new statute also lays down a minimum of two women candidates and one who has resided in Gozo for 10 years. Back in 2004 Labour did not have a single Gozitan or female candidate.
Unlike Labour, whose 10 candidates must be approved by the party general conference, the PN can sit comfortably watching the moves of the other parties before its strategy group decides on the ideal mix of Nationalist candidates.
So while Labour’s candidates slog it out in a fratricidal pre-electoral campaign to secure delegates’ votes, the PN’s top-down approach saves it from this little circus and instead allows it to engineer a mix of candidates who match the electorate’s expectations.
Simon Busuttil has already set his well-oiled machine in motion, after turning down the Prime Minister’s own request to take over as PN secretary-general. Former nurses’ union boss Rudolph Cini has also announced his intention to contest for the PN. So did EU official Edward Demicoli, who is hoping to bank on his profile at the side of EU representation head Joanna Drake, a former PN candidate in 2004. But it likely that the party will only field its heavyweights late in the day. In this case the main casualty will be incumbent David Casa, who was more visible as an IVA campaigner before the 2004 election than as an MEP.

Co-opting the enemy
The PN might also adopt the co-option strategy by picking long-standing critics as candidates in order to neutralize them. GRTU director general Vince Farrugia has not denied his interest in contesting, despite his severe criticism of the hike in electricity tariffs and going as far as threatening to issue a directive ordering shop owners not to pay their bills.
By fielding Farrugia, the PN could be addressing discontent among the business community even if it is to be seen whether frustrated businessmen will be lured to the party fold by Farrugia.
It will also be difficult to reconcile Farrugia’s right wing views on social housing and the environment with GonziPN’s declared social and environmental conscience. Yet such a candidature will surely confirm the “catch all” and schizophrenic nature of the PN.

Second time-lucky?
One major unknown quantity will be whether Alternattiva Demokratika can retain the 23,000 votes gained by Arnold Cassola in 2004, after seeing its vote slip to just 1.3% in the general election despite its former leader’s declared aim of electing at least one MP.
Once again Cassola will be AD’s front liner along with political novice – Yvonne Ebejer Arqueros, a social worker hailing from the south of Malta who lends a female and more left wing touch to the AD ticket.
It will be very hard for AD to repeat its 2004 performance which banked on Arnold Cassola’s high standing with Nationalist voters a year after an election in which AD sacrificed itself for the greater good.
On that occasion AD was helped by a visceral campaign orchestrated by the PN to link AD’s name to abortion. This campaign backfired as evidenced by polls showing AD gaining ground as the campaign against the Greens intensified.
Most probably this time round PN strategists will be wise enough to avoid a repetition of this strategic mistake, which had put AD at centre stage in 2004.
Cassola’s successful venture into Italian politics earned him the respect of those who took pride in his success in his success in the international field; but it also attracted the criticism of those irked by his perseverance in gaining a parliamentary seat in another country after failing to get one here.
His double role as party leader and candidate could even raise eyebrows in a provincial country like Malta, even if many European party leaders – including Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and Communist Party leader Fausto Bertinotti – have contested these elections. The newly elected German Green Party co-leader Cem Ozdemir who is not even a German MP leads his party as an MEP.
What is sure is that AD will fare much better in an election where no government is at stake and where people cannot be scared into voting for a lesser evil.
For AD the greatest problem could be that with an affable leader like Joseph Muscat, Labour could attract the dissatisfied pale blue voters, who are the most likely to vote for AD. On the other hand this time round AD enjoys a greater respect among Labour voters who have started to look at the Greens as potential allies but whether this would be translated into cross-party voting remains doubtful.
As a third party, AD will also face the competition of the anti-immigration Azzjoni Nazzjonali. Yet next June’s elections may well expose AN’s major contradiction. For it is likeminded far right parties in other European countries who are dead-set against any notion of responsibility sharing through which other European states would accept migrants rescued in Maltese waters.
What could also be at stake for AD is its bargaining power with the PL before the 2013 elections. Ultimately, if Labour fails to get over 50% of the vote next June and AD manages a decent percentage of the vote, the voices of those like Evarist Bartolo, who are already clamouring for a red-green coalition in 2013, will be strengthened.
For while any such coalition would be counterproductive to the strategy of both parties next June, the arithmetic of the last general election shows that the combined red/green vote was greater than the blue vote. But an overwhelming success by Labour may convince Muscat that he can well win on his own steam.
Yet as in 2004, especially if many absentee voters turn out to be disgruntled Nationalists, any signs of overconfidence after June may well prove to be Labour’s undoing in 2013.

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