Historically, the only significant Labour split occurred in 1949 when a 33-year-old Dom Mintoff deposed Sir Paul Boffa as party leader, after winning over the majority of delegates in the MLP’s general conference.
Rather than a schism, the 1949 Labour general conference represented a generational change that turned a pro-British party into an anti-colonialist force with a leader aspiring to became Malta’s equivalent of Egypt’s Abdul Gamal Nasser.
Boffa reacted by founding his own Malta Workers’ Party, which ended up bolstering three subsequent PN-led minority governments until Mintoff vanquished Boffa’s party to win the 1955 election.
Despite facing a minor split in 1962, when Toni Pellegrini left to found his Christian Workers Party amid Labour’s power struggle with the Church, Mintoff strengthened the power of his leadership to the point where supporters endowed him with Messianic qualities.
Mintoff’s legacy survived his demise as party leader, to the extent that the party rallied behind Alfred Sant in his epochal clash with Mintoff in 1998. Surely this conflict and subsequent events not only served to increase Sant’s bitterness at being cheated out of power, but also swelled the ranks of a Labour diaspora, which also included present leadership contender George Abela.
But the only attempt to create a new Labour party was a symbolic wreath laid by socialist maverick Anna Mallia, proclaiming the birth of the stillborn “Moviment Laburista Popolari” (Popular Labour Movement).
Now, with the MLP losing its third consecutive election and licking its wounds right in the middle of a leadership contest, PN circles are already revelling in the prospect of an MLP split which would consign them the keys of government for a very long time.
With four out of five leadership contenders casting varying degrees of doubts on the fairness of the contest, and all four fuming against socialist MEPs’ chairman Martin Schulz’s endorsement of Joseph Muscat last week, the cracks in the Labour fortress are more visible than ever.
The recently published MLP defeat report candidly refers to “infantile cliques” which preceded Labour’s third consecutive defeat. Michael Falzon’s allegation that the report was purposely biased against him has added to the vitriol on an already acrimonious leadership race, which could leave a legacy of recriminations and bitterness.
Falzon’s direct criticism of Alfred Sant, Jason Micallef and Charles Mangion’s pre-electoral performance on Monday in Bondiplus also adds a new twist to the contest, with Falzon shifting the blame on the rival clique led by the former leader.
The fact that Joseph Muscat has started the race as a favourite has definitely increased the bitterness of the four adversaries, who see his success as a reflection of his anointment by the party’s machinery. Surveys conducted by MaltaToday among both Labour voters, and more so among party delegates, have confirmed that Joseph Muscat is the likely winner of the contest by a considerable margin.
Yet on the morning after his appointment, Muscat will wake up to the reality that four of his senior party colleagues will be bitter and recalcitrant – three of whom have a seat in parliament and another one who is openly backed by at least one other MP.
Co-opting the four losers and their supporters will not be easy after such an acrimonious contest. Even in the more monolithic Nationalist Party, it took Lawrence Gonzi four years to heal his rift with John Dalli.
Much depends on the outcome of the first round of the contest. If party delegates give Muscat a resounding victory, with more than 50% of the votes on the first round, his legitimacy will be enhanced, leaving the other contestants with no choice but to follow the leader. In such a scenario one could expect the occasional leak, dig or outburst. But as the election approaches, none of the party’s present MPs will risk their chance of becoming ministers in a future Labour government by openly antagonizing Muscat.
The greatest incognito then would be George Abela, whose position outside parliament makes him freer, but weaker. But the eventuality of a split would be close to nil, as anyone who does not tow the line will be perceived as a turncoat or a PN lackey.
If he is magnanimous after victory, Joseph Muscat could re-unite the party by co-opting his rivals to meaningful positions. However, he may find himself having to jettison a few of his erstwhile allies in the administration, especially those who were tarnished by the recently published electoral defeat report.
History would be on Muscat’s side, because the need for a strong opposition with a chance of winning in 2013 will surely prevail over bitterness and recriminations. But if the contest protracts to a second round in which the three eliminated candidates rally behind the runner-up, a polarising contest could leave the party divided in two rival camps; with the runner-up trying to regroup all those who feel left out by the Alfred Sant camp and the party’s administration.
For Muscat, his perceived association with the party’s secretary-general and former leader would be his ultimate weakness in a direct contest with either George Abela or Michael Falzon. Muscat has gone a long way in distancing himself from either two, first by revealing that he had contested as an MEP despite Sant’s objections, and then by supporting an early election for the administration posts.
But even by emerging as the frontrunner, Muscat could become a victim of his own success and ambition. The MaltaToday surveys not only proved his position as a frontrunner among Labour delegates and voters alike, but also revealed an erosion of Falzon’s supporter base and the non-starter positions of Evarist Bartolo and Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca.
It also confirmed that the only candidate giving Muscat a run for his money is George Abela, whose 10-year absence from the party could prove an insurmountable obstacle among delegates.
The endorsement by PES Martin Schultz also certifies Muscat’s ability to re-invent his party as a mainstream European socialist party: no mean feat, considering the MLP’s pariah status among European socialists in the dark days preceding the EU referendum, when Michael Falzon was the party’s international secretary.
But the direct interference of a German politician in the MLP’s internal affairs is bound to create resentment in an insular party which once arrested foreign politicians who came to Malta to denounce Mintoff’s government, and who in more recent times called on EU Commissioner Gunter Verheugen to “bite his tongue”.
The timing of Labour’s defeat report, which squarely blames the debacle on the leadership quintumvirate, could be the last nail in the coffin for Falzon, clearing the way for a two-way contest between Abela and Muscat.
Still, anyone entertaining the prospect of a split may be underestimating the power assigned to the leader in Maltese political culture. For whoever jumps ship will earn the eternal scorn of Labourites who see divisions as the best recipe for consigning the country to the PN forever.
Ultimately, then, it may be the very fear a split which could seal the outcome of the election in the first round. After all, the prospect of the country governed by the PN for so long could well make Labour delegates close ranks, if nothing else to avoid a second round of voting, and with it the widening of an already gaping rift.