Robert Micallef Despite the slogan Hopenhagen showing on numerous posters around the city, the general sentiment amongst delegates, both government officials and representatives of international organizations, reflects a growing feeling of pessimism about the chances for a strong legally binding climate treaty that can be enacted effectively. Some developing countries are concerned at the way negotiations are being handled and, as I write, the African nations have withdrawn co-operation triggering a suspension of negotiations.
When he arrived in Copenhagen, the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon could only say that he was “cautiously optimistic” about the outcome of the conference despite the fact that there is a huge amount of pressure being built up on the 110 world leaders who are due to attend the last day of the conference on the 18th of December.
The first days of the COP15 climate summit, as the United Nations Conference on Climate Change is being called, have been partly dominated by procedural discussions and talk on the extent to which an agreement should be legally binding as opposed to just a political statement. There are different perceptions between UN member states that are difficult to reconcile. Still, negotiating teams from 192 countries have now produced a draft agreement that envisages emission cuts by rich countries of 25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020.
The European Union has pledged $10.6bn over three years to a proposed $10bn annual fund to help poor countries cope with climate change. Financing is at the heart of the discussion but very little talk about how that financing is going to be accessed and distributed.
Numerous non-governmental organizations as well as countries of the South are arguing that the promises and pledges made by governments of industrialized countries do not go far enough. A comparison is made with the way countries responded to the international financial crisis over the past two years. Governments, they argue, have recognized that some parts of the system are too big to fail and have structured a response that provided trillions to save the financial system. Here in Copenhagen the talk is only just getting into billions despite the fact that the objective is to save the planet for present and future generations.
Only a small minority doubt that climate change can lead to unprecedented changes in the natural environment which will affect the way people live with possible dramatic consequences on our health, energy sources and food production systems irrespective of our geographical location or socio-economic status. Ecological collapse could cause a social breakdown in many parts of the world triggering mass migration and political instability. New geo-political rivalries over scarce resources will emerge. Like other island states, Malta is in danger from rising sea levels.
The United Nations is very well placed to lead the world on the action that is required. This is an interesting time at the UN. The radical discussions that took place in the 1970s following the Stockholm conference are returning thanks to the international financial crisis. Part of this is linked to the debate on who should manage the world’s resources at such a crucial junction of humanity. There is also an increasing recognition that the impacts of global warming would be felt disproportionately by poor people who already live in precarious conditions and therefore it is pertinent to link new action with the development agenda. Climate change can increase the already existing inequalities faced by vulnerable groups in society and can obstruct progress towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. As the UN Secretary General said, those who will suffer most from climate change have done the least to cause it.
The Copenhagen conference provides an opportunity to assess the progress made since the Rio Summit in 1992 when the first steps to negotiate international consensus on addressing climate change began. In Rio, I took an active part in the NGO steering Committee which prepared a contribution to the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). I had just finished my studies at Oxford and started to engage in efforts in Geneva to promote the work of the UN amongst youth and student organizations. Later, as a European Youth Forum bureau member in Brussels responsible for the United Nations I did my part to push the development agenda and lobby for youth participation in international UN meetings and assemblies.
I share the feeling of many delegates that our very existence is now at risk and the future is literally in our hands. The question is do governments have the will to make the changes required? It is possible to bail out banks but there is no way you can turn back sea level rise once it happens. Governments in Copenhagen should not compromise on the future of humanity.
Robert Micallef is in Copenhagen participating in the United Nations Conference on Climate Change as part of a delegation of Geneva based international non-governmental organizations. He is resident academic at the Department of Public Policy of the University of Malta.
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