By 2050 Malta will be too hot for tourists but will attract even more climate migrants from Africa as its already threatened water reserves are completely exhausted, low lying beaches are swept by rising sea levels invaded by swarms of jellyfish. By JAMES DEBONO
Water Crisis Sine fresh water is less dense than salt water, Malta’s largest ground water supply-the Mean Sea Level aquifer actually floats on the sea.
A one meter rise in sea water will bring sea water even closer to the fresh water which floats above it. This would mean that salinity levels will be even closer to the extraction sources.
This water extracted by the Water Services Corporation for human consumption comes from a system of galleries like the one in Ta’Kandja which lies 97 meters beneath the surface. The water is than pumped up to the surface and then to homes. While the water is fresh in the galleries, 10 meters below, it is salty.
But probably Malta will already face a water shortage before the full impact of global warming is felt for it is already facing a crisis on water due to over-extraction, usually illegally, from groundwater sources.
Groundwater extraction by the Water Services Corporation (WSC) has already declined by 36% over the past decade, because of a dramatic increase in salinity, creeping into the Maltese underground water table.
The salinity is generated by sea water intruding into the groundwater sources, which lose pressure when too much water is extracted – usually through illegal boreholes.
Due to rising salinity in ground water Malta will have no choice bit to rely on desalination to make the sea water drinkable. More than half the potable water on the island is now produced in this way.
On their part desalination plants contribute significantly to global warming as theyare powered by fossil fuels. This would also mean that the price of water will depend on fluctuations in the international oil market.
A report prepared by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations in 2008 already warned that the government will have to double household water bills if no action is taken to safeguard Malta’s groundwater resources
Disappearing beaches Low-lying beaches like Ghadira could be entirely wiped out in less than 50 years unless some form of remedial measures are taken, climate change experts have warned.
One of the reports drawn up about climate change shows that the areas proneto inundation include Mellieha, the Ahrax peninsula, Xemxija, Salina, Ramla l-Hamra, Marsalforn, Dwejra, Marsascala, St Thomas Bay and areas around Marsaxlokk harbour.
Ironically, localities like St George’s Bay, Balluta, Xlendi and many areasaround Grand Harbour would also have been subject to flooding, had they beenleft in their pristine state.
Climate migrants Climate change will push more people from Africa to Europe, thus increasing pressure on Malta as a front line state.
Africa will be one of the continents hardest hit by global warming. In the west and northwest, drought and desertification will intensify and threaten the livelihoods of local habitants
Climate scientists argue that extreme weather events and resource shortages will affect millions of people in Africa by 2050. Parts of Africa could see rain-fed agricultural yields fall by much as 50 percent from today’s output, threatening food insecurity on top of water insecurity.
Deputy High Commissioner for Refugees L. Craig Johnstone has warned that even by the most conservative predictions up to 250 million people will be displaced by the middle of this century as a result of extreme weather conditions, dwindling water reserves and a degradation of agricultural land. Many people will also be forced to flee their homes to escape fighting over meagre resources.
If climate migration projections come true, they will double the total level of migration worldwide. In some cases, climate migration hot spots overlap with already volatile and unstable regions, where substantial migration could easily give rise to border conflicts and national security concerns.
Less Tourism Apart from changing the topography, climate could make Mediterranean summers too hot for tourists after 2020. This is one of the conclusions of a study published in the Journal of Sustainable Tourism.
As temperatures soar across Europe, some northern Europeans travelling to Mediterranean beaches are finding the weather no warmer than at home. But this could only be taste of things to come.
“Those conditions will become more prevalent in future,” David Viner, a senior climate scientist at the University of East Anglia, warns.
Climate change could dramatically change the face of Maltese tourism in the next 20 years as traditional tourism flows are inverted with European tourists flocking to the UK to escape unbearably hot continental summers.
Another bleak report on climate change and tourism published two years ago by Deutsche Bank Research singled out Malta as the European country to be most seriously affected by global warming by 2030, when the most important industry for the island will be depleted of tourists who will be choosing Denmark, Germany, the Benelux countries and the Baltic States.
Negative climatic consequences always have particularly serious effects if climate-sensitive tourism has major economic importance, the authors report. In Europe this applies to Malta, Cyprus, Spain, Austria and Greece.
The Mediterranean region, with its focus on seaside and beach holidays, loses attractiveness if there is an increased number of heat waves in the summer months.
Higher temperatures and water shortages are expected to put off tourists in the high season. Malta’s high economic dependence on tourism, which places the industry as the number one contributor to national GDP, means the problem will be further aggravated.
The report also spells out the disastrous fate of countries which bank on golf courses as tourist facilities; as these already face longer, drier periods depleting their water supplies, while cultural and health tourism remain independent of climatic factors.
While the classic summer package holiday in the Mediterranean tourist centres will noticeably suffer from rising temperatures, city trips, which are mainly enjoyed in the spring and autumn months, are generally independent of climatic changes. This is also true of cultural tourism, wellness holidays and any other types of theme travel.
The report predicts, by 2030, the Mediterranean region will have a noticeable increase in the number of days with temperatures above 40 degrees C.
The authors say the negative climatic consequences will have particularly serious effects for Malta. All things considered, the tourism industry is looking back at turbulent times, the report says, adding that unlike natural disasters or terrorist attacks, climate change is not just a short-term effect that could be quickly forgotten. Rather, climate change will permanently alter the attraction of some holiday regions.
More jellyfish Scientists believe that the warming of oceans - has allowed some of the almost 2,000 jellyfish species to expand their ranges, appear earlier in the year and increase overall numbers. Jellyfish spend most of their lives in the open seas, because that is where the water tends to be more saline and warmer. However, researchers believe they approach beaches when water near the coast, which is generally colder and less saline, stops acting as a barrier. In the Mediterranean, overfishing of both predatory fish like tuna as well as smaller fish has left jellyfish with little competition for plankton, their food, and fewer predators. Since 1996, massive “blooms” of mauve stingers have plagued Mediterranean beachgoers. In previous decades, the jellies showed up every 10 to 12 years. But that pattern changed in the 1990s as the time span between the infestations shortened. In 1996, the Mediterranean coast experienced its largest blooms ever. The jellies retreated in 1998 but returned in even greater numbers just five years later. In August 2006, 60 million jellyfish reportedly swept up on Spanish beaches and stung more than 70,000 people.
The full impact Malta’s vulnerability to climate change was recognised by the government in 2004. Its assessment in the ‘First National Communication of Malta to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’ (UNFCCC) states: “The most important impacts include the deterioration of potable water supplies and quality, more frequent extreme weather events, increase in soil erosion and an accentuated desertification process, threats to public health, changes in sea water mass characteristics and effects on fish stocks, sea level rise, coastal erosion and inundation, and reduced biodiversity.
Maltese Perceptions on Climate change
The Maltese are less skeptical of scientific opinion on climate change than other Europeans. But the number of Maltese who think that risks of climate change have been exaggerated has increase by 13% between February and September. In all 26% of Maltese think that the risks are being exaggerated. More Maltese think that the European Union is doing enough to address the problem of climate change than other Europeans. While 55% of Maltese think the EU is doing enough only 38% of other EU citizens think likewise. The hike in utility bills seems to have made the Maltese more keen on using less energy at home. In fact the Maltese are more likely to reduce energy and water use at home than other Europeans. Yet the Maltese are less likely to reduce the use of their car, use public transport and to install renewable energy sources at home than other Europeans.
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