Ja vol! German conservatives emulate GonziPN’s campaign
Germany is in full campaign mode ahead of the September 27 election, and chancellor Angela Merkl may even have borrowed a few ideas from Joe Saliba’s strategy handbook. James Debono on a remarkable electoral coincidence
It’s not just electoral slogans like “We can do it – all of us together!” which are remarkably similar to the PN’s 2008 slogan “Iva, flimkien kollox possibli”; but the German conservative’s campaign strategy also focuses on the matronly image of Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Furthermore, just as the PN deliberately axed its own ministers from the 2008 campaign posters, Christian Democrat campaign posters that used photos of Merkel’s ministers were taken down last week and replaced by a giant poster from which a benevolent Merkel looks down on the streets of Berlin, proclaiming “We have the power” and announcing “a new togetherness”.
The only difference so far is that the German conservatives still brand themselves with party initials CDU without attaching the party leader’s name to it, as was the case with “GonziPN”.
Merkel’s image had already been exploited by imaginative CDU candidates like Vera Lengsfeld who put up posters showing the ample decolletage of German chancellor and the slogan: ‘We have more to offer.’ But the latest wave shows the chancellor in a more statesmanlike posture.
Significantly, countless opinion polls have suggested that some 57% of Germans would vote for Mrs Merkel if they could elect her directly. MaltaToday’s opinion polls prior to March 2008 showed that Lawrence Gonzi was more popular than his own party, and far more popular than his rival Alfred Sant.
A survey by German TV channel ARD showed support for Merkel’s CDU stood at 36 percent, far ahead of Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier’s floundering SPD party, which garnered just 23%.
Political observers have interpreted the CDU’s campaign as a sign agree that the party has no option but to hide behind its leader, who dwarfs all other conservative politicians in popularity.
Steinmeier’s image as a cautious technocrat has not helped to inspire his demoralized party, let alone the German electorate. On the other hand Merkel’s popularity stems from an impression that she is a “safe pair of hands” who has successfully steered Germany through the worst of the economic crisis.
Merkel ditched the perception that she is some sort of Teutonic Margaret Thatcher opting for a pragmatic, cautious approach which avoids difficult or unpopular decisions, treading a middle road that could easily be mistaken for the path of a centre-left leader.
In fact, unlike the PN in 2008, the CDU cannot afford to exclude coalitions with other parties, though it faces little risk of losing power.
What remains unclear is whether Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will once again work alongside the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) or opt for a coalition wíth the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP). Other scenarios seem unlikely because surveys show that a red-green coalition would lack the numbers even if the Left party is included.
The only other option would be a traffic light coalition between Greens, Liberals and SPD, but this option has been excluded a priori by the liberals because of irreconcilable differences on nuclear power and fiscal policy.
But one thing is widely expected: Merkel is likely to continue at the helm. If the party continues to lose support as the latest polls show, Merkel would be left with no option but to continue her sluggish but stable grand coalition after the election.
Some observers interpreted Merkel’s reluctance to take the plunge in the early weeks of the campaign as a sign that she would prefer to hang on to the grand coalition with the SPD than to team up with the liberals. Some even hinted that she could tame the liberals’ lack of enthusiasm for cuts in carbon emission by including the Greens in a Jamaica coalition (named after the colors of the three parties). Yet following a drubbing for the CDU in two state elections where a CDU majority could be replaced by red green coalitions, Merkel has completely changed tack taking a prominent role in the campaign.
What is certain is that conservative parties across Europe (Sarkozy in France, Merkel in Germany, Berlusconi in Italy and Cameron in Britain) are increasingly identified with the personality of their leaders.
Still, such a tactic could backfire if the electorate’s trust in these leaders is betrayed by flamboyant behaviour, as is the case with Sarkozy, or outright debauchery in the case of Berlusconi. And despite the ephemeral popularity of the leader, chronic fatigue could weigh down parties which have been in power for too long, as seems the case with PN in Malta.
Tables can also be turned with charismatic leaders like Joseph Muscat posing a more credible challenge than their austere predecessors.
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