Labour voters’ party discipline awards party sixth seat
James Debono Claudette Abela Baldacchino’s 16,167 vote inheritance determined the names of Labour fifth and potential sixth Labour MEP.
In one swoop, Attard Montalto inherited 9,636 votes from Abela Baldacchino which enabled him to surpass former Labour MP Joe Cuschieri and Marlene Mizzi, whom he had trailed till the 25th count.
The fact that John Attard Montalto’s name was second on Labour’s list, just below that of Abela Baldacchino, could well be an indication that the alphabet still plays an important factor in the single transferable vote system, through which voters can give preferences to different candidates.
Yet Cuschieri is set to take a place as an observer in the European parliament until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified.
The tendency shown by Labour voters to give preferences to all Labour candidates on the party’s list was an important factor in awarding the sixth seat to Labour, despite initial indications that the PN had a greater chance of winning this seat.
While 3,713 Nationalist votes were non-transferable because voters stopped giving preferences at some point, only 1,898 votes of Labour’s votes were lost in this way. This does not include the 14,907 non-transferable votes left by Casa, because by that time all other PN candidates had been eliminated.
PN voters were also more likely to vote across party lines, and this further erodes the PN’s pool of votes.
Labour candidates inherited 345 votes from Simon Busuttil’s surplus. Labour also inherited 586 votes from Roberta Tedesco Metsola Triccas, 203 votes from Alan Deidun, 197 votes from Vince Farrugia and 160 from Marthese Portelli.
On the other hand the PN only inherited 77 votes from Kirill Micallef Stafrace, 71 votes from Sharon Ellul Bonici, 44 from Claudette Abela Baldacchino and 32 votes from Glenn Bedingfield.
Simon’s bounty As expected it was Simon Busuttil’s huge 27,420 surplus which determined the election of fellow incumbent David Casa as the PN’s second MEP.
While 15,240 votes were transferred to Casa only 3,892 were transferred to Metsola Tedesco Triccas. The third PN candidate to get most votes from Busuttil was Vince Farrugia, who took 2,318.
Ironically, Labour took more votes from Busuttil than AD. While 345 votes were inherited by the various PL candidates, only 322 of Busuttil’s votes were transferred to AD. And 68 of Busuttil’s votes were transferred to far right candidate Norman Lowell.
Transfers from the far right
Bizarrely, Alternattiva Demokratika – the most dovish party on the immigration issue – inherited a total of 781 votes from the two far right formations.
Arnold Cassola managed to inherit 578 votes from Neo-Nazi candidate Norman Lowell, and a further 203 votes from the hawkish Josie Muscat.
Moreover, the supposedly leftist Labour Party inherited more votes from Lowell than the PN and AD.
PL candidates inherited 1,100 votes from Lowell while PN candidates inherited 853. A total of 1,735 Lowell votes were not transferred to any of the other parties.
Surprisingly, the mild-mannered Edward Scicluna was the PL candidate to inherit most votes from Norman Lowell (194) while among PN candidates David Casa received the largest share of Lowell’s votes (385)
On the other hand Josie Muscat’s votes were distributed more evenly among the other parties, with AD gaining 203, Labour 304 and the PN 325. 477 of Muscat’s votes were not transferable.
The PN’s green vote Only 225 votes were transferred from Alan Deidun to Arnold Cassola – an indication that the PN strategy of taking votes from AD by fielding a Green candidate had a limited effect.
Most of Diedun’s votes (5,949) were transferred to fellow PN candidates with Casa getting the highest share (2,515). But 203 votes were transferred to PL candidates, with Edward Scicluna gaining the greatest share (52).
Cassola also inherited 33 votes from Edward Demicoli, who during the campaign distinguished himself by calling for the abolition of Spring hunting. But the bulk of Demicoli’s vote went to PN candidates David Casa (427) and Metsola Tedesco Triccas (264).
Cassola’s vote Arnold Cassola’s vote increased by 2,279 votes (from 5235 to 7514) in the 22 counts before his elimination.
Vote transfers enabled Cassola to remain in the race after the elimination of six PL and five PN candidates.
As happened in the previous general election the vote transfer from AD was evenly distributed between the PN and the LP.
While the PL inherited 29.7% of Cassola’s vote (2238 votes), the PN inherited 27.8% (2087 votes). 42.4% of AD’s votes (3189 votes) were not transferred to the other two parties.
This could be an indication that AD has a core vote which refuses to vote to the other parties, despite the party’s call on voters to use the vote transfer system.
But a number of AD votes were not transferred because since Cassola was eliminated at a very late stage of the process, a number of candidates like Simon Busuttil were already elected or others like Alan Deidun already eliminated.
Among Labour, the candidate to get most votes from Cassola was Prof. Edward Scicluna, who inherited 757 votes. The Labour candidate who inherited the least number of votes from Cassola was Joseph Cuschieri, who got 137.
Among the PN Cassola’s vote was mainly shared between David Casa and Roberta Metsola Triccas. Since Simon Busuttil was elected on the first count, no votes could be transferred from Cassola to Busuttil.
Sharon’s Eurosceptic vote Incumbent John Attard Montalto was the chief beneficiary of transfers from Labour’s Eurosceptic candidate Sharon Ellul Bonici. While 1,911 votes were transferred from Ellul Bonici to Attard Montalto only 1,021 were transferred to Marlene Mizzi.
This enabled Attard Montalto to edge closer to Marlene Mizzi, thus increasing his chances to gain the hypothetical sixth seat.
Ultimately, without Sharon Ellul Bonnici’s votes Attard Montalto could have ended up eliminated before Claudette Abela Baldacchino whose votes were vital for his election. In fact Montalto only had 1171 votes more than Abela Baldacchino before she was eliminated.
Since at the very end of the process Attard Montalto had just 754 votes more than Cuschieri without the 1911 vote inherited from Ellul Bonici, Attard Montalto would have still been surpassed by Cuschieri. This would have meant that Attard Montalto would have ended up taking the sixth instead of the fifth seat.
Europhile Edward Scicluna was the least Labour candidate to inherit votes from Sharon Ellul Bonici. He only inherited 627 votes.
AD inherited less votes from Sharon Ellul Bonici than the PN. While 43 votes were transferred to Cassola, 71 were inherited by the PN candidates.
Only 198 of her votes were non transferable.
Vince Farrugia’s vote GRTU director general Vince Farrugia saw his vote tally increase from 4,056 in the first count to 10,087 in the 24th count. When he was eliminated 197 of his votes were transferred to Labour candidates, with Edward Scicluna being the principle beneficiary inheriting 87.
Of the two remaining PN candidates Casa gained 5,533 votes while Metsola Tedesco Triccas inherited 3,871.
A very high number of Farrugia’s votes (487) were non transferable.
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