James Debono MaltaToday was the only media house to publish the results of its surveys in the run-up to election day. Apart from predicting a narrow PN victory, surveys also showed that the writing was already on the wall by the second week of the campaign.
A chronicle of the six surveys conducted by MaltaToday during the electoral campaign shows how a 6% advantage for the PL evaporated as former PN voters, who were previously non-committal on their voting intentions, went back to the fold.
All pre-electoral surveys showed the PL with a wide advantage. But this could well have been a blessing in disguise for the PN which was far less complacent than Labour in the first weeks of the campaign.
On the other hand Labour exuded over-confidence right up to the very end, ignoring MaltaToday’s polls which showed the PN gaining ground on the swell of GonziPN.
A timeline of MaltaToday surveys reveals that AD’s pivotal 3% immediately dropped to 1.8% after Lawrence Gonzi rejected the idea of a coalition with the Greens.
It also shows that the PN’s campaign picked up in the first three weeks of the campaign when Lawrence Gonzi took the initiative by promising tax cuts and MEPA reform while his party and its acolytes embarked on a massive scaremongering campaign directed both at Labour and AD.
But the same surveys also showed the PN losing support in the final week of the campaign, when its advantage fell from 5.4% to just 1.7%. The final drop in PN voters preceded the final blow to the PN when Alfred Sant exposed a contract showing Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando’s involvement in the Mistra deal.
Although the surveys consistently showed the PN losing more votes to the PL from its 2003 voting pool, they also showed the PN winning more new voters. The surveys also correctly predicted a dismal performance by Azzjoni Nazzjonali whose vote during the electoral campaign wavered between 0.3% to 0.9%.
Surveys conducted by MaltaToday not only predicted the result, but could have also conditioned the campaign.
For two years, surveys conducted by MaltaToday consistently showed that Gonzi was the PN’s best asset. In the final week before the election Gonzi was the preferred choice of 48% of respondents while Alfred Sant was only favoured by 40%.
Responding to this trend, the PN’s GonziPN campaign effectively changed a parliamentary election in to a presidential contest between Sant and Gonzi.
The unbelievable Jeffrey
One of the factors which could have contributed to PN losses in the final week of the campaign, but not enough to give Labour victory, was the saga involving Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando.
The Nationalist MP was still elected from two districts, gaining 5,131 first count votes despite the publication of a contract on the eve of the election showing his interest in the development of a disco on his land in Mistra.
MaltaToday’s first survey after the election showed that the number of Nationalists who believed Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando’s version of events on the Mistra Spin Valley Disco application had fallen by 34% since the election, from 58% to just 24%, a month after the election. The number of Nationalist respondents who believed that Pullicino Orlando was not saying the truth increased from just 19% before the election to 31%.
When asked whether Pullicino Orlando should resign from parliament, 23% of PN voters agreed.
Even among Labour voters, a substantial 9% believed Pullicino Orlando’s version of event during the electoral campaign – confirming the effectiveness of the PN’s strategy of pitting Pullicino Orlando against Sant in the final days of the campaign.
Overall, the number of respondents who believe Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando’s assertions fell from 32% before the general election to a mere 12% after the general election.
Almost half – 46% – believed that Pullicino Orlando should immediately resign from parliament.
The battle for Labour’s soul
The aftermath of the election was dominated by the leadership contest in the Labour party, following Alfred Sant’s “irrevocable” resignation after 16 years at the helm.
A MaltaToday survey among Labour delegates published on 18 May, three weeks before the final contest, showed Joseph Muscat as the undisputed front runner in the race for the PL’s leadership contest, with George Abela trailing in second place. Among the 145 PL delegates who had made up their mind on whom to vote by the time of the survey, Muscat enjoyed the support of 58.6%, well above his nearest rival George Abela who scored only 19%, while former deputy leader Michael Falzon trailed at 15%.
Three weeks later Muscat was able to muster the support of 49.7%: just four votes short of avoiding a run off with George Abela who garnered the support of 23% of the delegates. Falzon ended in third place with 20.7%. This is an indication that Muscat lost support in the final weeks of the campaign but in the final showdown with Abela, Muscat won handsomely with 65.6%.
Another MaltaToday survey held among the general population also showed that Muscat was the preferred choice of Labour voters while Abela was the preferred choice of floating and Nationalist voters. It also revealed that 77% of all Labourite respondents believed their leader should be elected by party members and not by delegates.
Following his election as leader Joseph Muscat enjoyed a honeymoon period with the electorate to the extent that a MaltaToday survey after his first 100 days in office showed him enjoying a greater trust rating than PN leader and Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.
Unlike Alfred Sant, who always enjoyed a lower trust rating than Gonzi, new leader Joseph Muscat enjoyed a 13% lead over his rival, after being at the helm of his party for just 100 days. Muscat also managed to make inroads among Nationalist voters with 11% of respondents who voted PN in March preferring Muscat to Gonzi when asked which of the two leaders they trust most.
Overall, when asked whom they trust more, 44% opted for Muscat while 31% opted for Gonzi.
The dawn of secular Malta?
Beyond party politics 2008 also saw a growing debate on secularisation, especially after new Labour leader Joseph Muscat promised to introduce a divorce bill if his party is elected to power.
A survey conducted by MaltaToday in October revealed that the vast majority of Maltese people do not share the government’s timid approach to sex education in schools.
The survey revealed an astounding 85% in favour of teaching students about the use of condoms.
Although a wafer thin majority of 50.2% still opposes divorce, a remarkable 60% expect divorce to be introduced in the next 10 years; and significantly, 55% of respondents favour the recognition of the rights and duties of cohabiting couples.
The survey also revealed that 56.4% of under 34-year-olds agree with the introduction of divorce. And making a distinction between Church and State, only 31% expect MPs to vote according to their religious believes if a divorce bill is presented in parliament. A remarkable 41% agreed with euthanasia in cases involving terminally ill patients, while one in five agrees with abortion in cases where pregnancy is the result of rape.
Feeling the crunch
In a survey held in October, amidst the global credit crunch and the announced hike in water and electricity bills, a staggering 63.7% mentioned the hike in utility bills when asked about their biggest worry.
The bleak outlook was underlined by the fact that 46.6% felt their family’s livelihood was under threat.
And surprisingly, the most threatened category are the self-employed. Among this category 66% felt their livelihood threatened.
But Maltese banks emerged untarnished by the loss of trust experienced by global banking institutions. Only 12% had lost their trust in local banks, and only 9% believed that their deposits in Maltese banks are not secure.
While 39% think that the climate is right for property investments, 47% disagree.
And although 36% said that property prices are going upwards, a significant 32% believed that property prices were going down.
Countdown to an election
The March 8 poll as reflected in six MaltaToday surveys
30 January – 1 February: MaltaToday’s first survey shows PL ahead by 5.6%, but 42.6% still uncommitted.
4 February: Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi announces election and promises massive tax cuts.
6 - 7 February: Second survey shows PL’s advantage falling to 1.7% with the number of non-committed voters falling to 35.3%.
11 - 13 February: Third electoral survey shows AD support falling from 3% to 1.8% and PL’s advantage falling to 1.5%.
13 February: Gonzi excludes coalition with AD, promises to take MEPA in his hands. Labour hits out at good causes fund and corruption.
18 - 20 February: Fourth survey, with PN leading for the first time with an advantage of 1.8%.
PN intensifies campaign against reception class proposal.
25 - 27 February: Fifth survey shows PN lead over PL at its highest at 5.4%.
28 February: Alfred Sant reveals that MEPA has approved an outline permit for an open-air disco on land owned by Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando.
29 February - 4 March: Sixth and final survey reveals PN’s lead has dropped to 1.7%
3 March: Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando presents himself as a journalist for an Alfred Sant press conference. Alfred Sant walks out after confrontation.
6 March: Alfred Sant reveals contract signed by Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and Mistra developers on last day of campaign.
9 March: PN the wins election with a relative majority of 1,500 votes.
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