James Debono
With the support of 44% of Labour voters, Labour MEP Joseph Muscat emerges as the front runner in the race for the post for the MLP leadership, a MaltaToday survey reveals. And interestingly 77% of all labourite respondents believe their leader should be elected by party members.
Not surprisingly Abela - who entered the race as an outsider after a decade in the political wilderness, and who clashed with former MLP leader Alfred Sant - is by far the most popular candidate among Nationalist voters.
More significantly, Abela emerges as the favourite candidate among the pivotal category of floating voters.
While George Abela is favoured by 50% of floating voters, Muscat is only favoured by 18% of respondents in this category: just 2% ahead of MLP Deputy Leader Michael Falzon.
Floating voters are defined in this survey as people who have not voted for the same party in the past four elections. They account for just 14% of the whole sample.
The vast support Abela enjoys among Nationalist voters catapults the former GWU lawyer to the position of the most popular candidate on a national level: 9% ahead of Joseph Muscat.
Moreover, Muscat, at par with Evarist Bartolo, emerges as the least popular candidate among PN voters. And yet, Muscat is also perceived a threat by a larger number of Nationalist voters: while only 4.1% of PN voters would prefer him as Labour leader, 15% think that he has the best chance of winning the next election.
On the other hand, while 63% of PN voters prefer Abela, 43% think that the veteran politician has the best chance of winning the next election.
Although Abela emerges as the preferred candidate among voters who refused to divulge for which party they had voted for in the March general election, Muscat is viewed by this category as the candidate with the best chance to win the next general election for the MLP.
Surprisingly, Abela has also made deep inroads among Labour voters, despite starting the race as the anti-establishment candidate whose candidature was immediately shot down by the party’s general secretary, Jason Micallef. The MaltaToday survey shows that Abela is currently the second most favoured candidate among Labour voters: 14 percentage points ahead of MLP deputy leader, Michael Falzon.
This could be an indication that Abela has made most of his inroads in the MLP at the expense of Michael Falzon. Surely Abela’s status among MLP voters is boosted by his proposal to give rank and file members a say in the election for the new leader. While 77% of MLP voters in 2008 would like rank and file party members to vote for the new leader, only 15% oppose this proposal.
Still the poll seems to suggest that even if Abela’s proposal to widen the franchise is accepted by the party’s general conference, Muscat, who enjoys the greatest support among MLP voters, is still likely to win a contest among party members.
Falzon registers his strongest support among Nationalist voters, where he comes in second after Abela, and among floating voters where he attracts 16%. This could be an indication that the MLP’s deputy leader has gained sympathy among Nationalist and moderate voters for being the sole MLP official to concede the Labour defeat at the Naxxar counting hall.
The other candidates – Marie Louise Coleiro Preca and Evarist Bartolo – fail to make any significant imprint in the poll. Coliero Preca is relatively stronger among women, especially among those aged between 35 and 54. Among this category Coleiro Preca emerges as the third strongest candidate after Abela and Muscat.
Evarist Bartolo attracts nearly the same amount of support among all categories of respondents, beating Coleiro in fifth place only among male respondents in general. Bartolo’s poor showing could be attributed to the fact that he appeals to the same reformist constituency as Muscat who has the added advantage of being endorsed by MLP grandees like George Vella.
The survey also exposes 60-year-old George Abela’s major weakness: his lack of appeal amongst younger voters. In contrast, the 34-year-old Muscat emerges as the favoured candidate of respondents aged between 18 and 34. Among this category Muscat soundly beats Abela by 23 percentage points.
Muscat’s inroads among this category of voters is particularly significant because various analysts have attributed Labour’s defeat to its failure to communicate with younger voters, especially first-time voters. According to MaltaToday’s pre-electoral surveys it was this category which shifted the balance in favour of the PN.
On the other hand Abela is more popular than Muscat among people aged above 35. This is especially true among those aged above 55 years of age. Among this category Abela soundly beats Muscat by 25%.
This could be an indication that Muscat fresher image and his internet presence is making inroads a marked impact among younger voters, but his young age could be a liability among older voters who might prefer Abela’s more traditional approach to politics.

jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt