With the election approaching and the political temperature rising, more people are making up their minds on who to vote for in the next election. A survey by MaltaToday shows that in the past two months the number of undeclared voters fell by a staggering 9 per cent since July.
The drop in undecided respondents was accompanied by an increase in support for the Nationalist Party, which managed to increase its support by 7.6% and decrease Labour’s lead by half: from a 9.6% gap in July to 5.3% in September.
At 26%, the PN managed to score its best result since April, when it scored 29%.
Yet, contrary to secretary-general Joe Saliba’s claim that the PN is 1% ahead, the MaltaToday survey shows Labour 5% ahead and scoring its best result in the past year of MaltaToday surveys by surpassing the 31% mark.
By eliminating the 39.7% of respondents who did not declare their voting intentions, and therefore taking into account only those whose mind is made up on who to vote, Labour would score an absolute majority of 51.9%, with the Nationalists trailing at 43% and AD weighing in at a respectable 4%. MaltaToday’s survey results are closer to the results of a Malta Labour Party survey leaked to sister paper Illum, showing Labour leading by 52.4%. The survey results come after a hot political summer during which the MLP went into campaign mode, first by singling out particular Nationalist ministers over corruption allegations, and then by launching two major proposals: a cabinet post for the MCESD chairman and a grant to first-time buyers of properties valued at less than Lm50,000. The MLP now fares better than the PN when it comes to policies. While 29% believe Labour has the best policies to govern the country, only 23% believe the PN has better policies. Yet the PN is deemed to have a better team of people to run the country with 28% of respondents, against the 25% who say Labour has a better team. This could be the PN’s trump card as it tries to reign in pale blue voters who do not trust the MLP leadership. For the second consecutive time Josie Muscat’s party Azzjoni Nazzjonali failed to leave a mark in MaltaToday’s surveys. None of the 300 respondents participating in this survey opted for the new far right party. The only respondent choosing the far right opted for Norman Lowell. But despite the failure of AN to leave an impact, the electorate remains largely disillusioned by the immigration policies of all parties, with 66% unable to choose between the policies of the different parties on immigration while another 9% expressing disagreement with the immigration policies of all parties. Still, only one respondent claimed that AN has the best policy on immigration. Although trailing behind Labour, the Nationalist Party still manages to beat Labour as the party with the best policy on job creation. Despite a series of job losses in the manufacturing sector, the PN is riding high on the 5,600-job promise of the Smart City development. In this sense the endeavours of Investment Minister Austin Gatt are proving to be a godsend for the PN. While 29% of respondents prefer the PN’s job creation policies, only 24% opt for Labour’s. On the other hand Labour soundly beats the PN hands down with regards to housing. Amid a perception of rising property prices and the government’s impotence to do something about this problem, only 19% believe the PN has the best policy on this issue. Labour has struck a chord by promising financial handouts to first-time property buyers. AD only succeeds to make an impact when it comes to its environmental policies. Despite AD’s ongoing campaign on rent reform and vacant properties, only 1.3% choose the Greens for their policy on housing. On the other hand, nearly one-tenth think AD has the best environmental policies. Despite major environmental sins like the extension of development boundaries and controversial permits like the one in Ramla Bay, the PN still beats the MLP on green issues. By standing firm on the hunting lobby, Environment Minister George Pullicino scored points among pale blue voters. Only 16% think that Labour has the best green policies. This is another indication that Labour has not managed to build a track record on quality of life issues which are becoming more important for the middle classes. Yet despite Labour’s failure to make inroads on major policy planks like job creation, the environment and immigration, the survey indicates that as things stand now Labour is the likely winner of the next general election. While 7% of those who voted PN in 2003 would now vote for Labour, 1% of those who voted MLP in 2003 would now vote for the PN. Still, the “non-voters party” could still play a fundamental role in the next election. Over the past year, the number of those who would not vote has fallen from 22% to 11%. Despite this decrease, those intending not to vote still constitute 10% of the electorate, and their numbers have swelled by a further 1.6%. Former Nationalist voters prevail among this group. While only 2.4% of Labour voters in the 2003 election will not be voting next time round, 10.5% of former PN voters claimed that they will not vote in the forthcoming election. Former PN voters who are still determined not to vote account for 4% of the total number of respondents. Yet even if the PN recovers all these voters, it will still be 1% below Labour. Methodology A total of 501 respondents were chosen randomly from the telephone directory, with 300 accepting to be interviewed. Results were weighed according to the sex and age brackets from the latest census.



The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5.7.