Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi pre-empted yesterday’s result by claiming that this election was not a “vote of confidence” in his government. But he also acknowledged that he would “take cognisance” of the indications of the result, and take the necessary decisions accordingly.
Yesterday, a stern-faced Gonzi faced the press once more, this time with the preliminary results in hand. The indications are clear even from a cursory glance: around 55% of first-count preference votes went to the Labour Party this time, while the Nationalist Party secured 40% of the overall vote. The difference between the two parties in this election stands at around 35,000 votes: around double the 17,000 votes that separated the same two parties in 1996.
Few would deny that this represents a colossal defeat for the party in government, which currently clings to power by a single parliamentary seat, after an election fought almost exclusively on the central figure of Lawrence Gonzi himself.
And unlike five years ago – when the PN lost by a narrower margin – there is less room to manoeuvre when it comes to apportioning blame.
With less than a third of its 2004 tally of 9%, the Green Party’s showing can only be described as an electoral disaster. As such, the PN can no longer accuse Arnold Cassola of “siphoning off” its votes to the benefit of Labour (although this did not stop some commentators from trying).
Alternattiva Demokratika has been exposed as an electoral irrelevance this time round, and the implications for Gonzi are inescapable: a substantial portion of traditionally Nationalist voters did not merely register a protest vote by voting for AD; they have undeniably jumped ship, and voted for the party in Opposition.
These are unmistakable echoes of 1996, when Labour was unexpectedly catapulted to power on the strength of nationwide disgruntlement on a wide array of domestic issues... with the only significant differences being that this was a European election, not a general one; and that the result this time round did not exactly come a surprise.
Nonetheless there is today, as there was in 1996, a palpable sense of disillusionment and uncertainty regarding the economic and political direction of the country. Dr Gonzi appeared to acknowledge as much during his press conference yesterday, when he talked about the “unpopular decisions” he has had to take in recent months. But at the same time, Gonzi also gave the impression that he has not fully taken on board the indications of yesterday’s result.
While “assuming full responsibility” for his party’s performance – whatever that means in practical terms – the Prime Minister strongly hinted that it will be business as usual as from tomorrow. In a series of vague and somewhat woolly answers to questions by the press, Lawrence Gonzi claimed he would be closely analysing the result, but also reminded listeners that there were still the same challenges facing the country, and that there would not be any significant change in direction by his government.
Judging by today’s result, this is not what a substantial section of the PN’s own voter-base wants to hear. Gonzi would be wise to swallow a little pride and concede that he himself has so far failed to deliver on a number of crucial counts since last year’s election. For instance: 15 months ago he promised to take personal ownership of a sorely-needed reform at the Malta Environment and Planning Authority, and to solve the “environmental deficit” in the same way as he had previously turned around the economic deficit.
It was an unfortunate choice of analogy. Over a year later, the promised reform of MEPA has not materialised, and popular discontent at the “monster” is as rife as ever. As for the economic deficit, revised NSO statistics now reveal that government’s projections have gone seriously awry, and the European Commission launched excessive deficit procedures against Malta for failing to control government expenditure.
Another electoral promise to bite the dust was the much-touted cut in income tax brackets: conveniently postponed indefinitely on the pretext of the international economic crisis – the same crisis that Finance Minister Tonio Fenech claimed would not hit Malta as hard as elsewhere.
On all counts, the Gonzi administration continued to govern after March 2008 for all the world as though it enjoyed a comfortable and absolute majority and the luxury of five seats more than the Opposition in parliament. Evidently, it failed to take stock of the message inherent in the last election, and judging by his reaction to yesterday’s result, Lawrence Gonzi appears dead-set on making the same mistake again.
Faced with all this, one question immediately springs to mind: what exactly does the electorate have to do, to get its message across to government?
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