Sunday Times survey produced by Simon Busuttil aide’s firm
The survey giving Labour a 10% lead in the Sunday Times last Sunday was produced by a firm whose director is Simon Busuttil’s advisor – Stefano Mallia.
Mallia’s central role in the PN campaign – led by MEP incumbent Busuttil – was exposed last week due to a gaffe by a candidate who inadvertently forwarded Mallia’s message in an email reply to questions by the Sunday Times about his electoral spending.
Mallia was revealed to have instructed candidates to reply that they were too “taken up” by campaigning, to entertain the newspaper’s questions on their electoral spending.
Although yesterday Mallia denied being the PN campaign manager in replies to MaltaToday, PN insiders have pointed at him as being Busuttil’s right-hand man in this campaign.
But Mallia is not just Busuttil’s advisor. He is the director and a shareholder in EMCS, the firm commissioned by the Sunday Times to prepare a survey which gave Labour a 10% lead in the MEP elections, and a miserly 0.25% support for Alternattiva Demokratika – contrary to the predictions of MaltaToday’s regular polls.
In fact, both Mallia and Busuttil are directors of Europa Research Consultancy Services, a company owned by both EMCS and Gansam, the legal firm whom Busuttil is a shareholder of.
The link exposes Busuttil’s role as an architect of the PN’s electoral strategy, assisted by his advisor Stefano Mallia. But it also sheds light on the strategy that is squarely aimed at minimising an impending PN loss in the European elections.
Survey politics Struggling with the government’s unpopularity due to the rise in utility bills, the EMCS-Sunday Times survey predicted that a substantial 11.6% of those who voted for the PN in 2008, will not be voting for the PN this time around.
It gave Labour a 10% lead, compared to MaltaToday’s survey – published last Sunday – giving Labour a 9-point lead.
But subtle differences between the two surveys are worthy of note: the MaltaToday survey gives AD 4.1% of the vote, while the EMCS gives it just 0.25%.
And while MaltaToday shows 3% of those who voted PN in 2008 will be voting AD this time around, the EMCS survey predicts just 0.4% of the PN vote will go to AD.
In another survey last week by TV programme Xarabank, Labour was polled at 23.5% with the PN close behind at 22.2%.
But this survey also produced a discrepancy. By factoring in more respondents who said they voted PN in 2008 (36.7% of respondents) compared to those who voted Labour (28.2%), the survey produced higher abstention levels for PN voters (7.7% said they will stay home) and even a significant 4.1% saying they will switch sides to Labour.
On the other hand, Labour enjoyed lower abstentions (3.6%) and just 1.2% of their 2008 voters switching sides.
Central to the PN strategy is propping up the Labour vote, in a bid to encourage Nationalist voters to come out to vote and minimise PN losses.
More to the point, in a surprise move the PN placed an advert in last week’s Sunday Times predicting an abysmal result for the PN: “Our polls tell us that the way things stand today, Nationalist EP candidates will struggle for a second seat, and that if a sixth seat were available to Malta, then anti-EU or eurosceptic candidates would get four seats and pro-EU Nationalists would get only two,” the advert warns, pointing to the fall in turnout for the PN.
Coupled with the recent advertising blitz by the Department of Information to bring out the vote, Simon Busuttil himself and candidate Vince Farrugia have publicly told voters that regardless of the dismal predictions for the PN, the MEP elections would not be changing anything for the Nationalist government.
On his part Stefano Mallia yesterday denied being the PN’s electoral campaign manager when contacted by MaltaToday, but admitted to “helping out” the party in running the campaign.
Questioned about the email he wrote to all PN candidates instructing them how to reply to Sunday Times questions, Mallia said: “I am not going into this. I have already given my replies.”
While refusing to reply if Simon Busuttil was running the PN campaign, Mallia also denied being a prominent member of Busuttil’s staff – despite being listed as an ‘external advisor’ on the MEP’s website.
When this newspaper put it to him that other PN insiders had indicated him as the PN campaign manager, Mallia simply replied: “They can say what they like.”
Email blunder Mallia’s role in the party campaign strategy was exposed thanks to a reply inadvertently forwarded by candidate Vince Farrugia, which carried Mallia’s comments to candidates on the questions put to them by the Sunday Times.
“With reference to the query from The Sunday Times re MEP election expenses please use the reply reproduced below.
“ ‘I am very taken up with the demands of the election campaign and so am unable to give a comprehensive and proper account of the expenses incurred for the election campaign which is still underway... Once the election is over I will ensure that all accounts are properly done.’ ”
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