News | Sunday, 15 February 2009

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Labour 12 points ahead

But 46% of PN voters still not committed to any party

James Debono
Labour is 12 points ahead of the Nationalist Party in the first MaltaToday poll on voting intentions for next June’s election, in which voters will be asked to choose Malta’s five members of the European Parliament.
But since 54% of respondents are not committed to any party, the outcome of next June’s poll is far from a foregone conclusion.
One clear indication emerging from the survey is that Nationalist voters are more lukewarm than Labour voters in pronouncing their voting intentions.
While 77.2% of Labour voters in last March’s general election have made up their mind to vote for the PL, only 47.3% of Nationalist voters have made up their mind to vote their party.
More Nationalist voters are prone to abstaining in the forthcoming European elections. While 4.3% of PN voters would not vote, only 1% of Labour voters would do likewise.
Among Nationalist voters the number of undecided is double that found among Labour voters. This indicates a similar pattern to that preceding the 2008 general election when Labour saw its advantage evaporate as more Nationalist voters made up their mind in the last weeks of the election.
Yet since the country’s government will not be at stake next June, Nationalist voters may well stay at home or vote for another party.
Alternattiva Demokratika only manages 2.7% – a far cry from the 9% gained by Arnold Cassola in 2004.
Yet with Labour at 28% and the PN at 16%, AD’s 2.7% could also reflect the high degree of indecision among voters at this particular moment.
AD still manages to attract more Nationalist voters than Labour voters: 4% of PN voters to only 2% of their Labour counterparts.
Nor have respondents made up their minds on which candidate will receive their first preference, with 77% claiming that they are still undecided.
But incumbent MEP Simon Busuttil emerges as the PN’s frontrunner, with 8% of all preferences and 24% of Nationalist voters. None of the new PN candidates has made any inroads among the Nationalist electorate.
Competition is more intense within the Labour camp, with newcomer economist Edward Scicluna already making inroads in Labour’s electorate. With 9.7% of Labour voters opting for his candidature, Scicluna trails incumbent John Attard Montalto by just 0.2%.
The other two incumbents, namely Louis Grech and Glenn Bedingfield, are already facing stiff competition from newcomer Marlene Mizzi, who has overtaken Grech and is just a point behind Bedingfield.

Muscat chosen as best MEP
Despite giving up his seat to become opposition leader, Joseph Muscat was chosen by respondents as Malta’s best MEP.
While 21.1% chose Muscat 17.2% opted for Nationalist MEP Simon Busuttil. Significantly 49% could not name a favourite MEP, and 44% of those who did could not even give a reason to justify their choice.
This is a clear indication that a significant number of people are not aware of what Malta’s MEPs are doing in Brussels.
Respondents choosing Joseph Muscat were the most likely to refer to specific issues raised by the former MEP during his term, which came to an end last August.
Of those preferring Muscat, 22% singled him out for his work to decrease the tax on satellite dishes, 13% praised his report on roaming mobile charges, and 8% recognised his efforts to abolish car registration tax.
On the other hand Simon Busutil has struck a chord by raising the issue of illegal immigration in the European parliament, where he put forward a proposal for a pilot project to create a burden sharing mechanism which would enable EU Member States to take up immigrants from other Member States which are facing a disproportionate burden, such as Malta.

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