For the first time ever, a Labour leader overtakes his Nationalist counterpart on the issue of trust in a MaltaToday survey

James Debono
For the first time since MaltaToday started its surveys, an MLP leader enjoys a greater trust rating than Nationalist Party leader and Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.
Unlike Alfred Sant, who always enjoyed a lower trust rating than Gonzi, new MLP leader Joseph Muscat enjoys a 13% lead over his rival, after being at the helm of his party for just 100 days.
Muscat also manages to make inroads among Nationalist voters with 11% of respondents who voted PN in March preferring Muscat to Gonzi when asked which of the two leaders they trust most. This is the major finding of a MaltaToday held between last Monday and Wednesday on Joseph Muscat’s first 100 days as MLP leader.

With nearly two-thirds of respondents approving his performance as MLP leader, the survey shows that Muscat is still enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate.
Moreover the result comes in the wake of the summer lull, during which the Prime Minister was largely absent from the political scene.
When it comes to the issues championed by Joseph Muscat the survey shows a mixed picture, with a slight majority still rejecting the introduction of divorce despite Muscat’s intention of presenting a divorce bill if elected to power in 2013.
Muscat’s balancing act on dockyard privatisation was also incomprehensible for 72% of respondents, claiming that they do not know what his position on this controversial issue is.
While the vast majority approved Muscat’s proposal to lower the voting age to 16 in local council elections, most respondents reject a lowering of the voting in general elections.
Muscat has proposed lowering the voting age at local council level as a test before lowering the voting age in general elections.

100 days of Joseph
The honeymoon is not over for the new Labour leader, who is judged positively by 66.3% of respondents. Only 3% judge his performance as leader negatively.
Even among Nationalist voters only 7% express a negative judgement on Muscat, although a considerable 33% are still undecided when assessing his performance – an indication that they are reserving judgement for a later stage.
Muscat has also managed to heal the rifts after an acrimonious leadership race by getting the approval of 86% of Labour voters in last March’s election.
After 100 days in the MLP driver’s seat, his performance as leader is even judged positively by respondents who voted PN in last March’s general election.
Muscat’s greatest accomplishment seems to be that he reversed one of his party’s main pre-electoral disadvantages: that is, a leader who was consistently deemed less trustworthy than Lawrence Gonzi.
In the past years, Alfred Sant’s trust rating hovered between 23% and 33%.
Significantly when asked who they trust most between MLP leader Joseph Muscat and PN leader Lawrence Gonzi, 44% chose Muscat and only 31% chose Gonzi.
While only 1% of MLP voters in the last election preferred Gonzi to Muscat, 11% of PN voters preferred Muscat.
This could be an indication that Muscat has already made inroads among the Nationalist electorate.
Assessing Muscat’s qualities
Respondents were asked to state Muscat’s most positive and most negative qualities.
Not surprisingly, most of the positive qualities attributed to Muscat are those which sharply distinguish him from his predecessor.
Muscat is lauded for his ability to reach out to people, for his charisma and for his appeal to young voters.
Among Labour respondents, Muscat is credited with reuniting the party and with opening the party to people who had fallen out with his predecessor.
Among Nationalist respondents, Muscat is mostly admired for his readiness to engage in dialogue with the government.
Muscat’s young age remains a double-edged sword, with a tenth of respondents considering it as his most negative quality.
Another negative quality is the perception among some respondents that despite the change of leader, the same people remained at the helm of the party’s administration.
While Labour voters tend to credit Muscat for reuniting the party – an acknowledgment of the trauma faced by the party after 1998 – the return of old Labour faces is considered a turn-off by a number of respondents.

Comparison with past leaders
Although just anointed as MLP leader, Muscat has already managed to eclipse his predecessors, with 54% deeming him as the best MLP leader in the party’s post-war history.
At 17%, Dom Mintoff comes a distant second well ahead of his nemesis Alfred Sant, who barely scores 4%.
Muscat's standing is even stronger among Labour voters, with 61% preferring him to his three predecessors.
Although deemed a “traitor” by Alfred Sant, Dom Mintoff is still considered as the better leader by 24% of Labourites. Only 7% of Labourites deem Alfred Sant as the best leader.
Unsurprisingly the more moderate Muscat is also deemed the best ever Labour leader by the majority of PN voters. But curiously, 18% of PN voters prefer the militant Mintoff to any of the other MLP leaders.

The issues
Muscat’s clear stand in favour of the introduction of divorce has not left any significant mark on public opinion on this issue.
The Maltese are practically split down the middle on this issue, which cuts across partisan lines: a situation similar to that of MaltaToday's last survey on the subject, held in January 2007.
The gap between those opposing divorce and those who think that divorce should be introduced amounts to barely 1.5%.
Labour voters still tend to be more liberal than PN voters on this issue. While 55% of Labour voters favour the introduction of divorce, only 32% of Nationalist voters do likewise.
While having the majority of his supporters behind him, by championing divorce Muscat could communicate with the PN’s liberal wing.
A much softer issue championed by Muscat is the lowering of the voting age from 18 to 16 in local council elections, with a view of doing the same in general elections.
But respondents tend to make a very sharp distinction between lowering the voting age in local elections and doing the same for national elections. A staggering 66% want the voting age decreased at local level, but only 38% favour enfranchising 16- and 17-year-olds in general elections.
This could be an indication that people are wary of entrusting youngsters with the responsibility of choosing the country’s government.
The dockyard remains a tough nut for Muscat to crack. Favouring privatisation, but at the same time supporting the GWU in its bid to secure a job guarantee for workers, Muscat risks appearing vague on this issue. In fact, when asked whether they knew Muscat’s stand on the dockyard’s privatisation, 72% replied that they did not.
Still 70% of those who knew what Muscat stands for on this issue expressed agreement with his position.
By keeping a low but consistent profile on this issue, Muscat could manage to appease his grassroots without alienating middle of the road voters.

Whom do you trust more?
Joseph Muscat 43.7
Lawrence Gonzi 30.8
None 8.5
Don’t know 17

Trust Barometer (by political allegiance in 2008 election) (%)

PN voters MLP voters
Joseph Muscat 10.5 85.9
Lawrence Gonzi 77.6 1
None 1.3 5.1
Don’t know 10.6 7.1

How do you assess Joseph Muscat’s performance as MLP leader?
Positively 66.3
Negatively 2.8
Fair 5.4
Don’t know 25.5

Assessing Muscat’s performance by political allegiance in 2008 election (%)
PN voters MLP voters
Positively 47.4, 82.8
Negatively 6.6, 1
Fair 13.2, 4
Don’t know 32.9, 12.1

What is Joseph Muscat’s best quality as MLP leader? (%)Contact with people 15.2
Uniting the party 14
Appeals to young people 10.1
Discusses with government 7.2
Good-natured 7.3
Shows leadership 5.3
New ideas 5.3
Good communicator 4.2
Charismatic 4.2
Pro-EU 4.2
Intelligent 4.2

What is Joseph Muscat’s worst quality as MLP leader? (%)

Too young/inexperienced 10.8
Same people at the helm 6.2
Weak leadership 5.4
Return of old faces 5.4
Looks artificial/show-off 3.1
Stance on dockyards 3.1
Tries to please everyone 3.1
Too ambitious 3.1

Who is your favourite MLP leader? (%)

Joseph Muscat 53.6
Dom Mintoff 16.7
Alfred Sant 4
Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici 0
All of them 3
None of them 8
Don’t know 14.7

Favourite MLP leader according to political allegiance in 2008 election (%)
PN voters MLP voters
Joseph Muscat 52.6 60.6
Dom Mintoff 18.4 24.2
Alfred Sant 0 7.1
None 22.4 1
All of them 0 5.1
Don’t know 6.6 2

Do you know what Joseph Muscat’s position on dockyard privatisation is? (%)
No 72.3
Yes 27.6

Do you agree with the introduction of divorce? (%)
Jan 2007, Now
Yes 49.6, 47.9
No 50.4, 49.4
Don’t know 0, 2.8

Agreement with divorce according to political allegiance in 2008 election (%)
PN Voters, MLP voters
Agree 31.6, 54.5
Disagreee 67.1, 44.4
Don’t know 1.3, 1.1

Should 16- and 17-year-olds vote in local elections? (%)
Yes 65.5
No 28
Don’t know 6.5

Should 16- and 17-year-olds vote in general elections? (%)
Yes 37.6
No 57.2
Don’t know 5.2