MaltaToday | 8 June 2008 | Gonzi's post-election blues

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MaltaToday survey | Sunday, 8 June 2008

Gonzi's post-election blues

James Debono

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi finds himself snubbed by 9.2% of those who voted for his party last March, in the latest MaltaToday survey seeking the public’s verdict on his first 90 days since his improbable re-election.
The results show Gonzi facing an increasingly sceptical public, with just 38% of voters judging him positively. Significantly, he still manages to attract a sizeable 10.5% of Labour voters who judge him positively.

After winning the election by a whisker but against all odds, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi is already facing a sceptical public opinion whose verdict on his first 90 days since re-election is at best lukewarm.
Significantly, 9.2% of those who voted for the PN on March 8 are already expressing a negative judgement when asked to assess Gonzi’s performance in the past three months.
This suggests that the PN’s electorate includes a sizeable number of independent voters whose allegiance cannot be taken for granted.
MaltaToday’s first survey on Gonzi’s performance since the election shows the Prime Minister getting a positive rating from just 38% of voters. Although only 30% judge his performance as negative, a significant 18% are tepid, describing his performance as being “fair”.
Another 14% would not commit themselves.
After banking on Gonzi’s popularity to win the election on the “GonziPN” platform, the Prime Minister is now being held personally accountable for the very high expectations raised in the electoral campaign.
On the other hand, Gonzi still shows a remarkable ability to attract a segment of Labour voters.
A sizeable 10.5% of Labour voters in the March 8 election express a positive judgement on Gonzi’s first 90 days in office after the watershed election which saw their own party losing for a third consecutive time.
This is also a clear warning to the new MLP leader that a significant portion of the Labour electorate has warmed up to the Prime Minister.
The 35-54 year old age bracket, which includes people in the middle of their working lives, is the most sceptical. While 37.5% of middle-aged respondent express a negative judgement, only 34.6% express a positive judgement.
The younger age group (18-34) is the least negative about Gonzi’s first three months in office. This confirms the PN’s greater popularity among younger people, which had a great bearing on the election result.
Surely the electorate is already expecting Gonzi to deliver on his fiscal promises: 34% expect the government to implement its promise to slash taxes immediately; 30% of PN voters are equally exigent in their demands for fiscal relief.
This could pose a great difficulty for the government seeks to balance its fiscal proposals with the bleak international scenario wdominated by rising oil and food prices.
During the election the Prime Minister warned about “dark clouds on the horizon” when referring to the international situation. But he still promised a substantial reduction of the top rate of income tax from 35% to 25%.
It is still not clear whether the government will enact this promise in its first budget.
Significantly the cost of living is considered as a top concern by two thirds of respondents – an indication that people are already suffering the brunt of rising food prices and are expecting tax relief.
A substantial 11% expect the government to enact a reform of MEPA.
Nationalist voters are keener on MEPA reform than Labour voters. While 11.4% of Nationalist voters think that MEPA reform should be the first promise the government should honour, only 3% of Labour voters think likewise.
This suggests that the green vote has a greater weight in the PN’s “coalition” than in the MLP’s voting block.
Yet reconciling voters’ expectations with pressures from big business and powerful lobby groups could prove a very difficult task for the new government.
Significantly 9% Labour voters expect the government to honour its solemn promise to keep health care free. Gonzi himself claimed he would resign if the Nationalists introduced charges for healthcare, after Labour revealed the content of a report which suggested that a reform was on the cards.


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