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The Nationalist Party has nosedived to its lowest ever rating since MaltaToday started conducting surveys in November 2005, despite the fact that Josie Muscat’s party scored less than 2% in the first survey since Azzjoni Nazzjonali was launched.
For the first time ever, the PN languishes below the 20% mark.
The survey was held after the European Commission’s favourable recommendation for Malta to join the Euro and on the eve of the opening of Mater Dei. But any feelgood factor created by these two events seems to have been annulled by a spate of corruption and bribery cases hitting various ministries and authorities.
Since April, the PN has lost a remarkable 10.5 percentage points.
Just a month ago – a week before Azzjoni Nazzjonali was launched – 4.5% of respondents said that they would surely vote for the party led by Josie Muscat. On that occasion respondents were asked directly whether they would vote for the new party.
In a similar survey published last week in the Sunday Times, Azzjoni Nazzjonali scored a much higher 6%. That survey included questions referring directly to Josie Muscat’s party and to the issues championed by the new party.
MaltaToday’s July survey focused on the theme of corruption and no reference was ever made to Josie Muscat’s new party. As is normal in our surveys, when asked for voting preferences, respondents were not prompted by a list of parties. It was up to the respondents to name the party they intend voting for.
On the other hand, support for the Malta Labour Party has remained stable since February – a clear indication that despite the PN’s losses, the MLP is not gaining any ground.
Surprisingly, instead of declining as election day approaches, the number of undecided voters has jumped upwards by 4% in the past month – a clear indication of the state of confusion reigning among voters.
Riding high on the moral outrage generated by the Ramla l-Hamra development, Alternattiva Demokratika – the Green Party scores its highest rating since April with 3.2%.
Support for the two small parties tends to penalise the Nationalist Party, which is now under pressure from both its left and right flanks. While the PN loses 5.3% of its 2003 general election vote to the two small parties, the MLP has not lost any support to either Josie Muscat’s Azzjoni Nazzjonali or the Greens.
Josie’s new party seems to score lower when respondents are not prompted or reminded of its existence. This suggests that the new party has yet to develop a sense of ownership among its potential supporters. The survey’s margin of error also tends to penalise small parties whose support hovers below the 5% mark.
Another factor which one should consider is that across Europe, surveys rarely gauge the extent of support for far right parties, as people tend to refrain from flaunting their allegiance to parties with dubious credentials. Polls failed to gauge the extent of support for Jean Marie Le Pen before the 2002 French presidential elections.
On the other hand, a look at surveys conducted over the past two years show that Alternattiva Demokratika has a consistent support base hovering between 2% and 4%.
When one compares voting intentions of respondents with the way they voted in 2003, the most significant finding of the survey is that 30% of former PN voters are undecided as to whom to vote for next time round, and a further 8% intend not to vote.
A significant 4.5% intend to switch sides by voting for the MLP, 3.2% would vote for AD and 2.1% would vote for Josie Muscat.
Significantly, for the first time the MLP manages to beat the PN in all three age brackets, scoring its best result (29%) among those aged between 35 and 44 years and its worst result (24%) among those aged above 55 years old.
Both AD and AN score their best result among those aged between 18 and 34.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt |
