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France goes to the polls today amid fears of a repeat of the 2002 Presidential election, where extreme right wing candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen shocked the nation by beating socialist Lionel Jospin to the second round. Could it happen again, asks James Debono?
The latest opinion polls published in France indicate that today’s elections will result in a run off between conservative candidate Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist Segolene Royal in the second round on May 6.
But judging the results of the first round 2002 election, support for far right candidate Jean Marie Le Pen could once again be underestimated. In 2002, Le Pen defied the polls and emerged as the second most popular candidate after Jacques Chirac and just ahead of Lionel Jospin. This was interpreted as a sign that Le Pen’s voters are not keen on declaring their intentions to pollsters. Leftist voters were forced to forget their antipathy for Chirac to forge a strong, albeit somewhat artificial, “coalition” against Le Pen.
In the end, the radical right-winger was soundly beaten by Chirac, who got 82 per cent in the second round.
Friday’s Ipsos poll puts Sarkozy at 30 per cent, Royal at 23 per cent and centrist Bayrou at 18 per cent. A TNS Sofres poll published on Thursday puts Sarkozy at 28 per cent and Royal at 24 per cent.
All surveys show the far right candidate down in fourth place behind Bayrou at 13 per cent. In the past year of surveys, Le Pen has never risen above the 14 per cent mark.
In March, an Ipsos poll had put Bayrou just one point behind Royal at 23 per cent – 10 points ahead of Le Pen. Yet since then, Bayrou has lost ground.
Judging from the polls, Le Pen has absolutely no chance of repeating his feat in 2002 when he emerged second behind Chirac, thus qualifying to the final round, bypassing Socialist Lionel Jospin.
Le Pen has been a fixture in French elections ever since 1956, when he was first elected in the National Assembly with Pierre Poujade’s populist party. He contested his first Presidential election in 1974, obtaining 0.74 per cent. Le Pen ran in the French presidential elections in 1974, 1988, 1995 and 2002. In 1987, the “despicable” politician described Hitler’s gas chambers as a mere detail in the history of World War II. In May 1987 he advocated isolating those infected with HIV, whom he calls “sidaïques”, from society by placing them in a special “sidatorium” (SIDA being the French acronym for AIDS). In 2005, he claimed that the occupation of France by Nazi Germany “was not particularly inhumane”. In June 2006, he claimed that the French World Cup squad contained too many black players, and was not an accurate reflection of French society. He went on to scold players for not singing La Marseillaise, saying they were not “French”.
In this election, however, Le Pen could be sidelined by Sarkozy’s hard line stand on immigration and law and order issues. But Sarkozy’s move to the right has also cleared the way for Bayrou, who made inroads among middle ground voters. Voters alienated by Sarkozy’s tough talk and sceptical of Royal’s promises could opt for Bayrou. He stands out as the most pro-European candidate, describing the EU as “the most beautiful construction of all humanity.” In contrast to Sarkozy, Bayrou – a close friend of Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi – is very critical of the US social and economic model. He described the Iraq war as the “the cause of chaos” in the Middle East. He denounced the US social model as one based on the “survival of the fittest.” Although a Roman Catholic, Bayrou is a strict believer in the French republican value of “laicite”.
Despite trailing the two top candidates in third place, polls suggest that unlike Royal, Bayrou would win a direct contest with Sarkozy in the second round. The latest Ipsos poll puts Bayrou at 55 per cent and Sarkozy at 45 per cent in the event of a direct contest in the second round. On the other hand, the same poll predicts a Sarkozy victory over Royal.
The polls also suggest a decline in support for an assortment of candidates on the left of the socialist party suggesting that Royal has managed to woo the left. By appearing alongside Spanish Prime Minister Zapatero on the last day of the campaign, she is sending a message that a socialist victory in France could strengthen the socialist element in the European Union.
Only 12 per cent now intend to vote for an assortment of candidates on the left of Royal’s socialist party. In 2002, parties on the left of the Socialist Party scored more than 23 per cent: with the two Trotskysist candidates, Olivier Besancenot and Arlette Laguiller, sharing 11 per cent between them. The Green Noel Mamere also managed a strong 5.3 per cent. This time round the Green former Minister Dominique Voynet is down at 1.5 per cent: on par with anti-globalisation crusader Jose Bove, best known for destroying genetically modified crops and dismantling a McDonalds outlet.
Absent from the race this time round is the anti-American and eurosceptic socialist Jean-Pierre Chevènement, who got five per cent in 2002. The only leftist candidate making a real impact in this election is the postman Olivier Besancenot, who rides on an anti-globalisation platform. Polls give him four per cent of the vote. Besancenot has used the slogan “Our lives are worth more than their profits” and has campaigned for the prohibition of layoffs in profitable companies and a taxation of profits from capital speculation.
But in the 2002 Presidential elections, opinion polls had vastly underestimated Le Pen’s strength while correctly guessing the strength of the far left. Jospin, who was eliminated from the real contest, emerged a clear favourite with 28 per cent of the vote a year before the elections. Although he saw his support falling by 10 per cent in the next months, Le Pen remained a distant third.
In the months preceding the election, polls asked about not only voter intentions for the first round, but also voter intentions for the second round, offering a choice between Jacques Chirac, the incumbent president, and Lionel Jospin, incumbent prime minister, the obvious candidates for the second round.
What happened on the first-round election day was not forecast by the polls: contrary to predictions, Jean-Marie Le Pen, finished second with 16.9 percent of the vote and moved on to the second round. Influential newspaper Le Monde stated, “France is hurt, and many French people are humiliated.”
In fact, no poll had hinted that such a result was even possible. The 12 polls published during the week preceding the first-round election gave an average of 18 per cent to Jospin, the presumed second-place finisher in the first round, and 12.7 per cent to Le Pen. They allotted an average of 5.3 points in favour of Jospin, and every poll put Jospin ahead of Le Pen by at least four points.
Hopefully for the honour of France, polls will get it right this time round and Le Pen will remain stuck at the fourth place behind Sarkozy, Royale and Bayrou.
jdebono@mediatoday.com.mt |
