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By sheer historical coincidence, the re-election of President Bush and the demise of Yassar Arafat will shuffle the cards in the Middle East crisis. The Palestinian leader who embodied the Palestinian struggle for statehood has dominated the Palestinian scene for four decades. The end of the Arafat era seen by both Israel and Washington, (rightly or wrongly, depending on whether one sees him as a terrorist or a freedom fighter) as an obstacle to peace in the Middle East could change the whole dynamics of the area. Indeed it shuffles the cards.
This is all the more possible coming in the wake of an overwhelming re-election result of President Bush who should spend the great amount of bestowed political capital behind him following his victory to work towards the creation of a free Palestinian state working and living at peace with Israel.
It is of course difficult to predict events in Palestine, an area where Arafat was most reluctant to cede power or to even prepare for the possibility of eventually having to do so. He ran the area controlling all power both financial and security. There is a danger that following his demise the area will turn into chaos with complete disorder and confusion. There is a real fear that violence will spread against the Israeli occupation in Gaza and the west Bank. The real possibility of no one being able to keep order can lead to a heightening of the tension and put paid to all possibilities of a peaceful settlement. That would be catastrophic especially since events of the last two days may have opened up the road to the possibility of reaching a settlement.
The ball is now clearly in America’s court. For years, American foreign policy has affirmed the impossibility of reaching agreement as long as Yassar Arafat was leading the Palestinian people. True to its affirmations it is now up to the American Administration and most especially President Bush to make it happen. He must start focusing primarily on the Middle East. He must see or be made to see that the fight against terrorism includes also the fight against the causes of terrorism, a major part of which lie clearly in the suffering resulting from years of wars and conflicts between Isreal and its neighbours. There is a growing feeling especially in European capitals that a key building block in the fight against terrorism is the settling of the Middle East conflict. To many this is the real obstacle. There seems to be a general consensus that the Palestinian people have a right to their own home land and that Israel too has a right to exist and to live at peace with its neighbours.
Recent events must also serve to improve the strained relationship between America and Europe. It is in the interests of the western world that relations be re-established to their traditional level. It is not in the interests of either continent that major disagreements keep surfacing. The illegal invasion of Iraq may have divided Europe but it is now opportune to work together with America to hand over the matter to The United Nations. It is time to start closing ranks. Europe must build its own identity, its own foreign policy, but it is crucial that this policy is not built on anti-American foundations. It is equally important as stated in a recent edition of Le Monde that anti-Americanism does not turn into an ideology. Europe must concentrate on consolidating its cohesion now that it is a club of twenty five members. It must get its foreign policy act together.
It must make use of all use its good offices especially with the help of the close Anglo-American relations to get the peace process moving again. This area needs to be the focus of American and European foreign policy working together to get an honourable settlement between Israel and the Arab world. America and especially a politically strong Bush can make this happen. To many a foreign commentator the re-election of Bush was bad news for Europe and undoubtedly for the rest of the world. In time Bush may surprise his fiercest critics, he is certainly now in a similar position to a re-elected Ronald Reagan. He need not worry about re-election; this can place him in a better position to force an honourable peace settlement on both Israel and the Palestinian people.
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