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Crista Falzon
New York
Will we have to wait till Wednesday night or even days, to know who will lead America through the next four years? Will it be another legal saga for Jim Baker and Warren Christopher on the outcome of next Tuesday’s Presidential election? One must see and assess a lot of complexities.
If President George W Bush wins the same states he won in 2000, as a result of some serious alleged gerrymandering carried out in some of the bigger states, his win will be of 278 to 260 electoral college votes instead of the knife-edged result of 271-267 on Vice President Al Gore in 2000.
Thanks to this redistricting exercise, Texas (the President’s state) became the second largest state in the US with 34 electoral college votes. New York was relegated to third place from 33 electoral college votes to 31.
This exercise has already given the President some form of a moral boost in this neck-to-neck election.
Another curious thing can happen. A candidate must grab 270 electoral college votes out of 538 to get elected. But if it results in a tie, that is 269-269, President Bush can make it through Congress, because the Republicans hold a strong majority in the chamber.
This election could be tighter in the popular vote than that of 2000. About 43 states are already determined about whom to vote for. These states combine a total of 451 electoral college votes. Senator John Kerry is very popular in California, the industrial states of Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York and the remaining states of New England.
The President holds his strength in the deep South states, his state of Texas and mid-west states. This combination gives Senator Kerry a slim lead in the electoral college of 232 to 219.
Eighty-seven votes are still up for grabs. These are the states of Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota and New Mexico. The first four states were carried by Mr Bush four years ago, but know he is facing a more tightening race to repeat his wins especially in Ohio, Arkansas and Colorado.
Senator Kerry has to hold the states carried by Al Gore in 2000 and take 10 more electoral votes from the President’s column to get elected. Surely he has already wrapped up the small state of New Hampshire from the Bush column and he is doing very well in Ohio, Colorado and Arkansas.
On the other hand Mr Bush has to defend his not-so-solid territory by attacking fertile soil such as the states of New Mexico that Gore won by only 366 votes, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The President can even offset a combination of losses of Ohio and New Hampshire by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida and New Hampshire by winning three of those four states.
As the race sits today, the President holds a one-point lead over Senator Kerry in the national race. In the Electoral College it could all depend on the outcome of Florida and Ohio. However, the final movement in the national polls will have an exaggerated effect on the electoral tally. It could go either way in the region from a tie to 310-228 electoral votes.
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