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Kurt Sansone
The other EU member states may not be waiting with bated breath as much as Malta is for the results of the European Parliament elections, that are to be announced this evening but the Europe-wide results are very much likely to give a clear picture of the European public’s general mood and how the political barometer is ticking.
The mid-nineties had seen a surge of socialist and social democratic parties taking power all over Europe. The British Labour Party’s victory in 1996 led by the charismatic Tony Blair had put an end to decades of conservative rule in Britain. That victory was followed by similar victories for the Left in Italy, Germany, France and even Malta.
In Italy current EU Commission President Romano Prodi had led the leftist Olive Tree coalition in victory over media magnate Silvio Berlsuconi’s rightist House of Freedom coalition. German Social Democrat leader Gerhard Schroeder defeated long-standing Christian Democrat Chancellor Helmut Kohl and went on to form a government with the Green Party led by the charismatic Joshcka Fischer.
Similarly, in France, the Left, comprising of the Socialists, Greens and Communists were led to victory by Lionel Jospin. Europe had gone Left and the victories were significant after the fall of the Berlin Wall just seven years earlier.
The failure of Communism in Eastern Europe had given the political Right sway over their counterparts on the Left. Led by political theorists such as Francis Fukuyama, the Right argued that ideology was dead by virtue of the collapse of the Communist system. Liberal democracy had won the great battle and with the Conservative and Christian Democrat movements claiming victory their own, the Left was thrown into disarray.
The ideological vacuum created on the Left after the collapse of the Berlin Wall provided the inspiration for Tony Blair’s New Labour and its Third Way, which embraced free market principles while proposing a new social discourse. Criticised by leftists in his party for moving towards the Right and described simply as a ‘better conservative,’ Blair soldiered on with his project.
Blair’s victory over the Conservatives provided the necessary spark that ignited a broad movement throughout Europe towards the political Left.
Come the new millennium and Europe began its shift back to the Right with Spain, Italy and France seeing significant victories for their Conservative parties. In Germany, the Social Democrats remained in government by the slightest margin only after the Greens scored their highest ever victory, maintaining the governing coalition intact.
The pro-conservative wave also saw a shift in the composition of the European Parliament where the European People’s Party emerged as the largest bloc in the 1999 elections. Greece joined the conservative wave this year when the conservatives beat the socialists at the polls.
At least 12 EU member states have governing coalitions on the Right of the political spectrum. In Italy and Austria the governing parties are also supported by far right elements while Denmark, Ireland, Slovakia, Estonia and Luxembourg have governing coalitions that include Christian democrats, conservatives and liberals.
The Left holds sway in 10 countries, even if pundits consider Tony Blair’s government as having taken a turn to the Right with Britain’s unconditional support for the US-led Iraq war.
In three member states, Czech Republic, Latvia and Slovenia, governing coalitions comprise various elements from both sides of the political spectrum.
The current set up may indicate that a victory awaits the Popular Parties in the European Parliament elections, meaning that the EPP could strengthen its position in the Parliament.
However, there have been two instances this year that may indicate the turning of the wind. In March, Spain’s Socialist Party emerged victorious at the polls on the back of a terrorist attack on a train station that left hundreds dead. When everything was pointing towards a victory for the ruling conservatives, the tide shifted as the Spanish electorate, strongly opposed to Spain’s involvement in the Iraq war, felt cheated by government’s initial insistence of blaming the terrorist attacks on the Basque rebel group ETA before it finally became known that Al Qaeda was to blame.
What seemed to be a freak win was however confirmed in France a month later. The socialists managed to win the elections in all but two of France’s regions in regional elections, which jolted the ruling conservatives.
Political analysts may argue that those two victories alone may not be enough to signal the start of a shift towards the political Left. The European Parliament elections may have served as a safety valve for voters to express their disenchantment at ruling governments.
Each member state has its own particular characteristics and it is difficult to apply a general rule. Studies prior to the elections have shown that the European Popular Party may stand to gain at the polls because of the new member states.
The governments in these countries are predominantly led by leftist coalitions and with voters in the mood of expressing their disenchantment with ruling parties, the EPP stands to gain.
In Malta, voter disenchantment with the ruling Nationalists is running high and the extent of the protest vote in yesterday’s election may very well determine whether the public mood has swayed to the Left by opting for Labour and the Green Party.
If that is the case then expect some much-needed soul-searching by the Nationalist Party. But if Lawrence Gonzi manages to put up a creditable show in his first electoral test as leader of the party then expect serious rumbling in the Opposition’s camp.
Irrespective of who the five elected MEPs will be, it is the percentages obtained by the respective parties that will be scrutinised in detail. They alone will determine the relative strengths of the parties and the public’s mood.
kurt@newsworksltd.com
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