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Karl Schembri
In what may be interpreted as a strange twist, a spectre of pessimism is haunting the new Europe and only Malta seems to be exorcised of it.
Only partly exorcised that is, as the first results of the Eurobarometer 2004 about public opinion in the acceding and candidate countries reveal that there is a great deal of pessimism about what this year is likely to bring for its citizens.
Unsurprisingly, however, Malta enjoys the record for the new member state likely to have the least abstentions at the June 12 MEP elections and the one to have most voting along political Party lines.
Otherwise, while Malta follows the general trend in its extraordinarily pessimistic outlook, it also shot up to second place of the support ranking scale when it comes to EU membership as the former EU-enthusiastic accession countries lost interest.
Based on interviews conducted last February and March with 12,124 people from the 10 new member states and the three remaining candidate countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey), the survey reveals that the general mood in accession countries regarding EU membership has changed significantly.
While trust in EU institutions remains stable, confidence in national parliaments and governments has “dropped to historic lows,” the report says. “All institutions, but the armed forces, face stagnating or declining confidence.”
Remarking about the “pre-accession blues” in the acceding countries, the survey report notes this is the first time in the enlargement process that the accession countries are less supportive of EU membership than the current member states.
Ironically, this downward trend in support sees Malta – a country deeply divided in its support of EU membership – shooting up to second place, with 50 percent thinking that membership will be a good thing. In most countries EU membership has lost the support of the absolute majority, with the exceptions being only Malta and Lithuania.
“The euphoria has suddenly seemed to evaporate in the new member countries,” the report says, adding that support of EU membership has declined in each accession country, with the most dramatic drop registered in Cyprus.
The report adds: “Resulting from these changes, the former EU-enthusiastic accession countries are now seated in the mid range of the support ranking scale (most notably Hungary).
While former ‘opponents,’ such as Malta, come in the second place with 50 percent thinking that membership will be a good thing. Most positive about accession are the Lithuanians (52 percent), where, during their cathartic political experiences (their president was impeached shortly after the fieldwork was completed, and the hearings and procedures have been going on for some months), the general mood concerning national or EU-related matters became the most optimistic.”
This sharp decline in support stands in stark contrast with the record of support level at the spring of 2003, which had coincided with a number of referendum polls, with campaigns popularising the EU and motivating citizens to attend referenda about EU membership.
Most positive about accession are the Lithuanians (52 percent), where, during their cathartic political experiences (their president was impeached shortly after the fieldwork was completed, and the hearings and procedures have been going on for some months), the general mood concerning national or EU-related matters became the most optimistic.
The general pessimistic outlook trickles down to the personal level.
“With more than half of the new EU citizens expecting a negative economic change in their country, the outlook is quite gloomy for the upcoming accession year,” the report says. “Although people see their personal job situation as nearly stable, more people expect their personal life to become worse in 2004 than those expecting it to change for the better.”
Malta is also in line with the pessimistic trends when it comes to its citizens’ opinion about the country’s economic outlook, with about half of accession country citizens expecting the situation to further deteriorate.
“We see clear dismay for developments in respondents’ home country’s economic situation,” the report says.
Malta also maintained its negative outlook towards the adoption of the common currency, in contrast with most of the acceding countries’ support for the euro.
The percentage of Maltese who tend to trust the European Commission has also gone down to 50 percent (two percent less than last year), and 1 percent less Maltese than last year trust the European Parliament (55 percent). On the other hand, the Maltese that trust the Council of Ministers increased by five percent, to 42 percent.
On the positive side, the Maltese increased from 45 to 50 percent when it comes to support of common EU foreign policy, while support for the Common Defence and Security Policy went up to 54 from 51 percent.
The Maltese top the list of those who believe the European Parliament has a great effect on their life (28 percent). Overall, 15 percent of the accession countries’ citizens consider the European Parliament decisions to have a great impact on their life, and a further 33 percent believe that they have some effect.
As to projected participation, the outlook is not too bright. Although citizens admit that the EP elections might be really important, they are not necessarily convinced that they would actually take part in them. Forty-four percent of the citizens in the accession countries claimed they are likely to participate and 32 percent say they definitely will turn out at the ballot box.
The latter figure is rather low even in those countries where the proportion of likely voters is higher: 58 percent in Malta, 46 percent in Cyprus, and 47 percent in Hungary.
The proportion of “definite” voters increased most in Malta (+15), Hungary (+13), Latvia (+8) and Lithuania (+7). Nineteen percent of the Estonians and 18 percent of the Polish citizens say they will definitely not vote in the EP elections. The state with the least respondents vowing to definitely not vote is Malta.
The survey confirms that Maltese voters will vote according to the candidates’ party affiliation in the upcoming European Parliament election, in contrast with all the other people surveyed.
The report says: “Although in many countries preferential or even non-preferential party lists will be applied to the European Parliament elections, a surprisingly low proportion of the citizens (in the 10 accession countries) plan to vote according to the party affiliation of the candidates.
“It is only in Malta where this aspect of the candidate is evaluated as really important (40 percent considers this aspect when making their choice).”
Like in most of the other accession countries, Maltese citizens expect the EP election campaign to address the problem of unemployment, but they are also the only ones to put the environment on the top three priorities after country-specific issues.
The complete Eurobarometer 2004 will be available in July.
karl@newsworksltd.com
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