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Kurt Sansone
As much as the political campaigns for the European Parliament election are pitching party against party, the very nature of the election is being punctuated by an aggressive rivalry developing between candidates of the same party.
With only five seats at stake, the battle is as harsh as ever with the PN and MLP likely to win two seats each, leaving the fifth seat in the balance.
Within the Nationalist Party there is little competition for the top spot, which sees Simon Busuttil as clear favourite. Even though the former MIC Chairman has dented his reputation as somebody above partisan politics with his repeated attacks on Alternattiva Demokratika on the issue of abortion, he still enjoys high approval ratings among the electorate.
PN’s female crux
The real battle within the PN is for the second seat. David Casa and Michael Falzon are both favourites, enjoying wide support among the PN grassroots. Casa is the PN’s equivalent, even if a bit more refined, of Labour’s Manuel Cuschieri and thus revered among PN activists for the amount of anti-Labour venom he can spew on the airwaves. He is also well-known for his active role in securing EU membership during last year’s referendum and election campaigns.
Michael Falzon, a party veteran needs no introduction to middle-aged PN voters, who are his self-declared target audience.
But the Casa-Falzon battle for the second seat is not as simple as it looks. Playing on the Labour Party’s inability to have at least one woman candidate, the higher echelons at Pieta are vying for the female vote by pushing Joanna Drake. The move is also intended to bolster Lawrence Gonzi’s image as a pro-woman leader.
The support for Drake is subtle. PN activists have pointed out that during the customary televised press conferences on NET TV Drake always sits down behind the PN leader Lawrence Gonzi ensuring maximum exposure during the broadcast.
This has irked other candidates, who lament the backing Drake is getting from the PN’s central administration, which may prove to be useful at district level where Drake enjoys little support among grass roots activists.
The long arm
And with the third PN seat not being a certainty somebody from the Casa-Falzon-Drake trio is definitely going to feel embittered about the outcome, especially if the ‘long arm’ of the party plays a determining factor on who gets elected.
The rest of the PN candidates are not expected to get anywhere close to getting elected. Aides close to industrial relations lawyer Ian Spiteri Bailey say that his unrelenting work among the grass roots has helped him to chip away at the disadvantage he faced at the start of the campaign. Although Spiteri Bailey may have a satisfactory showing, especially in the Birkirkara district, no surprises are expected. Anton Tabone will benefit from the Gozitan vote being the only candidate from the sister island but he is unlikely to fly very high when the number one votes are tallied. With no political experience and no standing within the party and with Simon Busuttil mopping up the moderate vote, Roberta Tedesco Triccas and Joe Friggieri will probably be the first to drop out of the race.
Labour’s battle of moderates
The situation is no less chaotic in the Labour Party with leading candidates Joseph Muscat and John Attard Montalto seeing their initial advantage slowly eaten away by political newcomer Louis Grech.
Muscat and Attard Montalto remain the top favourites for Labour’s two seats. Having started their campaigns early and enjoying wide popularity among Labour rank and file, the pair is also popular among middle of the road voters.
Attard Montalto is however facing internal flak over last year’s challenge he mounted against Labour leader Alfred Sant. The lawyer has also attracted attention for the high flying campaign he is conducting. On the ground Attard Montalto is being bad-mouthed by activists working for other MLP candidates.
But the moderate administration at Hamrun may have an interest in seeing Attard Montalto elected to the European Parliament because his vacated parliamentary seat in Malta may offer the possibility of a co-option.
Louis Grech’s first foray into the political arena is proving to be a mixed fare. His exposure on the media over recent weeks has strengthened his credentials as a moderate and sensible person, qualities that make him acceptable to the middle of the road voters. However, he suffers from lack of contact with the MLP’s grass roots, something, which Grech has tried to make up for by canvassing at a district level utilising veteran Labour activists. This handicap can however be a hindrance once votes start to be transferred between the different candidates.
The young, the old and the new
Glenn Bedingfield enjoys the highest profile through his job at Super One. He is also popular with the party’s grass roots, especially in the southern areas. But despite a relentless home-visits campaign, Bedingfield’s chances of getting elected are still remote and much depends on whether Labour will get two or three seats.
Another outsider is Wenzu Mintoff, who is doing the rounds with former MLP President Manuel Cuschieri. Mintoff’s election to the MLP executive in November proved that delegates no longer see the lawyer in a bad light even if canvassers for other candidates are bad mouthing him for having ‘abandoned’ the party in the late eighties. It still has to be seen what level of support he enjoys, something difficult to judge given Mintoff’s low profile campaign.
As for new entrants Robert Micallef and Owen Bonnici, they stand little chance of coming close to election even if the youngish Bonnici’s silent campaign among Labour supporters could give him a pleasant surprise. Micallef is trying to walk a tight rope by pampering to floating voters with his moderate outlook and playing Dom Mintoff’s tune by adhering to the Front Maltin Inqumu’s call for a re-negotiation of the accession treaty.
However, just like at election time this ‘neither here nor there’ strategy is likely to lead Micallef nowhere.
Joe Debono Grech’s candidature, initially intended to attract the Labour core vote, seems to have lost its lustre as the anti-voting sentiment among supporters subsides.
The Cassola headache
According to information received by this newspaper, the first internal polls received by the major parties show Alternattiva Demokratika candidate Arnold Cassola making good inroads. This was confirmed by the PN’s all-out attack on Cassola last week, which departed from the initial strategy to ignore AD completely.
Cassola is enjoying an early surge in sympathy from disgruntled PN voters but with a full four weeks of campaigning left the Green candidate still has a long road to travel to be able to challenge for the fifth seat. Cassola has no internal flak given he is AD’s only candidate and all hopes lie on the possibility of him winning a seat without attaining the quota.
To do so he requires a substantial number of first preference votes enough to keep him in the race long enough despite inheriting less votes than other candidates.
But another worrisome factor for the major parties is hunters’ candidate Lino Farrugia. Although his campaign lacks profile both Labour and PN have their eyes glued on Farrugia, who may chip off essential number one votes that could play a determining factor on how the voting process turns out.
kurt@newsworksltd.com
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