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Focus •
January 25 2004 |
The two Nationalist party leadership contenders are on a high state of alert in the eventuality that Prime Minister Eddie Fenech Adami announces that his time has come. Leaks in the press speculate that the Prime Minister will announce his decision on his birthday 7 February, but revelations of the precise date have been interpreted as an attempt to stop the seventy-year old politician from moving ahead with his announcement.
The main contenders still appear to be the deputy Prime Minister Dr Lawrence Gonzi, 50 and Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Mr John Dalli, 55. Though it appears that Dr Francis Zammit Dimech 49, may also stand.
Another contender may be Education minister Dr Louis Galea, 56 but it is still unclear whether he will be making a move for the leadership. MaltaToday had reported late last year that Louis Galea was a possible candidate for President, and he has also hinted at his interest in the leadership. If the Sunday Times is to be believed, Dr Austin Gatt 50, will not be contesting. However, MaltaToday has learnt that Dr Austin Gatt does not exclude running if a vacancy arises.
Should Dr Fenech Adami decide to go, Dr Gonzi will be at an advantage if Net TV, party media and party machinery rally on his side. On the other hand, the John Dalli camp has been silent with its campaign strategy.
Unknown to most media watchers the battle for the leadership will be dependent on the 850 party councillors that will finally elect the leader. The campaign, if it does take place, will focus on many of these individuals. If the contenders are to be considered as serious about their intentions they will have been preparing by pushing their candidates as elected councillors in the party club committees and district committees. A cursory look at the two main contenders confirms that both of them have not been idle in the last months.
The Labour media, which has been running an illogical diary of events in the race for the PN leadership have recently postulated that an alliance has been forged between John Dalli and Austin Gatt. Yet, an insider told this newspaper that the word alliance is inappropriate and incorrect in the circumstances.
Nevertheless, a semblance of pacts with heavyweights will have to be established if any of the contenders are to be in a position to win the leadership race.
The selection of the country’s next prime minister should Eddie Fenech Adami resign will rest with the more than 850 councillors of the Nationalist Party and if the field of contestants for the post is bountiful the contest could drag on for weeks.
The party statute stipulates that the election has to be held within two months of the post being vacated and to win a candidate has to obtain two thirds of the general council votes, between 570 and 600.
If none of the candidates reach the threshold, the contestant with the least number of votes is eliminated and another election is held one week later between the remaining candidates. The contest will go on until one candidate reaches the required threshold or if only two candidates are left a simple majority will suffice for victory to be declared.
In the weeks to come aspirants to the post will be sounding the ground among general council members. If Lawrence Gonzi goes ahead with his intention to contest the leadership the statute does not preclude him from retaining his seat as deputy leader. If the deputy prime minister wins the contest then another election would have to be held for the post of deputy leader, but if he loses he will retain the deputy leadership post.
Grass roots
The PN general council generally reflects the grass roots of the party. The 67 party clubs and offices send the most councillors, with each club appointing councillors according to the number of eligible voters in the locality.
For every 500 eligible voters the locality club sends one councillor to the general council. This means that Birkirkara, with the biggest voting population will send around 35 councillors. The other big localities are Qormi, Mosta, Sliema, Zabbar and Rabat (Malta). Of particular importance is Gozo where collectively the locality clubs could be sending up to 50 councillors thus confirming the sister island as an influential block.
Councillors appointed by the party clubs could total around 588 thus making it imperative for any leadership contender to have a solid base among grass roots activists.
The six party sections representing women, youths, pensioners, the self employed, workers (Solidarjeta Haddiema) and the college of local councillors, send 15 councillors each to the general council.
Furthermore, each local council where the PN has elected councillors sends one delegate to the general council. The rest of the crop is made up of the parliamentary group (35 councillors), the elected members of the party executive (13 councillors), district representatives (13 councillors, one from each electoral district) and the PN candidates approved by the executive.
Councillors for life
Anybody who occupies the post of leader and deputy leader remains a councillor for life after terminating his stint in office. They also remain members of the executive with voting rights. Therefore former president Censu Tabone, a former deputy leader of the Nationalist Party under Gorg Borg Olivier still has a vote on the PN executive. The same holds water for Guido de Marco, who will resume his activity in the party once his term of office as president is over on 4 April.
When Fenech Adami steps down he will remain a general council delegate and will retain his post on the PN executive.
Kurt Sansone
It’s going to be a game of dates the one leading to profound changes in the political and social landscape of this country in the months to come. If it is to be, the suggested date game kicks off with the Prime minister’s 70 birthday on 7 February when it is rumoured that Eddie Fenech Adami may announce his resignation.
If it does materialise, Dr Fenech Adami’s resignation will pave the way for the appointment of a new Nationalist party leader by the end of February or the beginning of March.
This means that a cabinet reshuffle is expected to take place in March or April on the appointment of a new prime minister, by which time a casual election would be held to fill in Dr Fenech Adami’s vacant parliamentary seat. The reshuffle would also take into consideration the vacated seat of foreign minister after Joe Borg takes up his post at the EU Commission.
The next important date is 4 April when President Guido de Marco’s term in office expires. If de Marco’s successor is a sitting MP then another new face is expected to make it to Parliament.
The choice of President would fall within the remit of the new Prime Minister and although Eddie Fenech Adami’s name has been cropping up as a possible contender it is unlikely he would accept the nomination.
During April Guido de Marco may also decide to announce his interest in contesting the European Parliament elections on behalf of the Nationalist Party. If Prof. de Marco does take the plunge he would be the first president to have re-entered the political fray.
The next important date is 1 May when Malta officially becomes a member state of the European Union giving the new Prime minister his first international platform.
Hot on the heels of the 1 May celebrations the political parties would have to finalise their list of candidates for the European Parliament election to be held on 12 June. The parties would be gearing up for the final five weeks of electioneering that would see the whole country going to the polls just one year three months after the holding of a general election. Despite the international flavour to the EP election it is expected to serve as a barometer of the electorates mood and the first serious test for government.
In addition, on the same day, one third of the electorate is expected to vote in local council elections.
The final chapter of the date game comes one week after the EP election. If any of the five elected MEPs are sitting parliamentarians they would have to resign their seat in parliament paving the way for renewed casual elections that could see new faces on both sides of the House.
That could spell the end of change for 2004, unless the electoral results prompt further commotion in either of the three political parties thus making sure we would have another ‘interesting’ summer.
kurt@newsworksltd.com
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